Wednesday, 29 February 2012

PUNCAK (FV RM1.82 - TRADING BUY) FY11 Results Review: Breezing Through Choppy Waters


Thanks to timely profit recognition at its construction division, Puncak’s core net profit of RM3.7m  for FY11 beat our and street projections for a loss. Meanwhile, we reckon the scheduled 25% water tariff hike from 2012 may somewhat  help improve earnings, regardless of whether official approval is granted. We are also upbeat on higher  revenue from its newly acquired Oil & Gas (O&G) unit and earnings from outstanding pipe laying projects. As the share price offers a decent upside to our FV of RM1.82,  we are  prompted to upgrade Puncak back to  a Trading BUY.

Marginally ahead of expectation.  Excluding the non-operating income amounting to RM5.6m, Puncak reported a core net profit of RM3.7m for FY11, which was ahead of our and consensus’ projection of a loss. The revenue was 21.7% higher than our numbers, thanks mainly to higher construction revenue from  its  water pipe project and maiden contribution from  its  newly acquired O&G subsidiary. However,  the group  is allocating more capex and various annual charges directly to its income statement (P&L) to comply with accounting standard IC 12,  which  continues to undermine Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor SB  (Syabas)’s bottomline. That said,  the  timely profit recognition  in its construction division will help to cushion the negative impact.

25% tariff hike and O&G contribution? As provided under the concession agreement, 70%-owned Syabas is scheduled to receive a 25% water tariff hike from 1 Jan 2012. We do not expect any hike to be implemented as the previously scheduled 30% hike for 2009 is still under legal dispute with the Selangor State Government. However, we believe the group will again account for the estimated compensation for the new water tariffs, which will artificially boost its bottomline. Meanwhile, we also understand that its newly acquired Global Offshore (M) SB (GOM) has secured a lucrative O&G pipe maintenance project worth some RM420m, which will keep the unit busy this year. This aside, Puncak is also bidding for various water projects, with margins for its water and O&G projects estimated to be in the mid-teens.

Trading BUY. We expect Puncak’s FY12 profit to hit RM172.4m, incorporating the tariff hike compensation mentioned earlier, as well as contributions from its O&G and water pipe-laying projects. Since our last downgrade on the stock, its share price accordingly fallen back. Against our original fair value of RM1.82, the stock now provides a decent potential upside of 31%. In light of these factors, we upgrade Puncak back to a Trading BUY. Our fair value is derived from 0.7x FY11 B/V, which was the benchmark used before adjustments for IC Interpretation 12.

Source: OSK188

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