Friday 24 February 2012

KLK - HOLD FV RM23.72


1Q FY2012 Results 

Within expectations KLK’s 1QFY12 results were within consensus and our expectations. Revenue of RM2.923b made up of 28% of our forecast while net profit of RM341.0m was 23% of our full year target. During the quarter under review, revenue rose 21% YoY whilst PBT was up by 18% to RM463.2m. The higher YoY profit was mainly contributed by a 24.5% growth in the plantation division’s profit on higher commodity prices, higher FFB production and improvement from refinery operations that yielded better margins. In addition, a lower FRS 139 fair value loss of RM2.3m, compared to a loss of RM45.1m also contributed to the higher earnings. PBT margin of 15.8% was however lower than 16.2% in corresponding quarter of last year.

The Oleochemical division managed to record a 21% growth in revenue to RM1.28b. Nevertheless, the division reported a lower profit of RM3.9m (1QFY11: profit of RM23.1m)  on increased raw material costs and lower margins due to tough competition in the export market.  Indonesia had lowered its export duty structure, which conferred on its oleochemical producers an advantage of 15% lower raw material costs.  In our plantation sector update reports, we had foreseen KLK’s oleochemical operation would be hurt by the Indonesian government’s move in lowering export duties.  We expect the division to continue to suffer from high raw material costs as CPO prices trended upwards and as Malaysian downstream players faced stiff competition from rivals in Indonesia unless the Malaysian government moves to boost the landscape in export markets.  

On a quarterly basis, 1Q revenue was 2.5% lower. Net margin at 11.7% was also lower than 4QFY2011’s 15.4%. This is due to lower contribution from both key revenue generators – the plantation and leochemical divisions.  Plantation  profits dipped on softer commodity prices.  Manufacturing division revenues fell by 14.5% on weaker demand. Nevertheless, the first quarter was also a seasonally low period as customers were trying to keep stock levels low at the calendar yearend.

Recommendation
We expect the plantation division to continue with  its good performance in FY12, riding on high commodity prices. Its oleochemical division’s performance has been adversely affected by Indonesia’s export duty structure. Nevertheless, as KLK also owns Indonesian plantations, we anticipate its oleochemical plant in Indonesia to benefit from the impact of the differential in export duties. We are keeping our  HOLD recommendation with our fair value unchanged at RM23.72.  

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