Wednesday, 29 February 2012

MEDIAC (FV RM1.54 - BUY) 9MFY12 Results Review: Commendable Set of Results


Media Chinese (MCIL) recorded a record high 9MFY12 earnings of RM150m which were above both our and consensus estimates at 81% and 91% of  the full year forecasts respectively. We continue to like  its prospects going forward and foresee 2012 to be another record breaking year for  the group. While there were no dividends declared for this quarter, we believe that it will declare its dividend in 4Q considering its huge cash pile of RM384m as at Dec 2011.   Reiterate BUY with our FV upgraded to RM1.54 from RM1.47 previously, based on an unchanged 13x CY12 PER.

The Best So Far. In line with our previous guidance in our report titled “Another Record Year in The Making” published 14 Feb 2012, MCIL posted its strongest YTD results ever with its 9MFY12 top and bottom line standing at RM1.15bn (+8% y-o-y) and RM150m (+11% y-o-y). It marked its best quarter ever in 3QFY12 with earnings coming in at RM61m thanks to better showing from its Hong Kong operations which improved 20% y-oy and 37% q-o-q to RM79m as well as sturdy contribution from its Malaysia core business with growth  being driven by its core print business, with advertising revenue chalked up10% y-o-y and 13% q-o-q growth. MCIL’s travel segment also grew 18% y-o-y and 19% YTD with a strong surge in demand for its long-haul tours to destinations such as Europe and Australia owing to the year-end festive season and Christmas holidays. Margins for the group were sequentially higher q-o-q, with  an expansion of 600bps at  both PBT and EBIT level owing to management’s excellent cost control efforts. 

Positive trend to persist. Moving into 4QFY12, we foresee that the group will continue to report healthy growth, on the back of aggressive advertising and promotion activities among hypermarkets and fast-moving consumer good companies during the Chinese New Year period in Jan 2012. We  expect the positive trend to persist going into FY13 as management ramps up its efforts to better manage overhead and operating expenses. In addition, newsprint prices  – which are currently hovering at USD650-USD680/mt – are likely to remain stable and upcoming major events, such as the nation’s impending General Election, the 2012 Olympics and Euro 2012  sports tournaments will provide a boost to the sector’s adex growth.

BUY. We continue to like MCIL  which remains as the top buy within our media sector coverage. With earnings beating our and consensus estimates, we are upgrading our top and bottom line by 1%-5% for both FY12 and FY13. Hence, our FV is now upgraded to RM1.54 (from RM1.47 previously) based on an unchanged 13x CY12 PER. Though there were no declaration of dividends this quarter, we believe the group will continue to reward its shareholders given its mounting cash pile, which stood at RM384m as at Dec 2011. Thus, we continue to impute a payout ratio of 60% for FY12 and FY13, which translates into an appealing yield of 5.7% and 6.1%. Maintain BUY

Source: OSK188 

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