Tuesday, 28 February 2012

PCHEM (FV RM9.00 - BUY) 9MFY11A Results Review: Sales, Selling Prices Trend Lower


Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd’s 9MFY11A results (it changed its  year-end from 31 Mar to 31 Dec) were within expectations. This  was despite  its  3QFY11A performance being affected by lower sales volume and lower average selling prices of its petrochemicals products. We continue to like the company’s strong backing from Petronas Group, especially in keeping its feedstock prices low. Maintain Buy, with an unchanged fair value of RM9.00, based on the existing PER of 18x FY12 EPS.

Within expectations. The 9MFY11A results were within consensus and our expectations, making up 97% and 95% of  both  FY11 forecasts respectively.  Note that the group had earlier changed its financial year-end to December and  that  our  FY11 forecasts only represent a 9-month figure. The 3QFY11A revenue and net profit of RM3,904.0m and RM735.0m were 15.8% and 36.0% lower q-o-q due to the 15% drop in sales volume and 6%  fall  in average selling price.  Meanwhile, its  olefins plants were affected by the softening in certain product markets and power disruption at Petronas Chemicals Ethylene SB while the fertilizer and methanol plants were constrained by gas supply limitations. Other than these, the contribution from its associates in 3QFY11A sank 48.1% q-o-q due to lower production at one of the associates and jointly controlled entity. Finally, on a YTD comparison, the overall performance in FY11A was enhanced by the higher selling prices of petrochemical products, although this  was partially  offset by the weakening of USD against ringgit.

Maintain Buy.  Our fair value for Petronas Chemicals remains unchanged at RM9.00,based on the existing PER of 18x FY12 EPS. We like the company’s strong backing from Petronas Group, especially in keeping its feedstock prices low. Nevertheless, the risks to our view are that the company’s daily operation is subject to uncontrollable factors such as: i) fluctuations in the international prices of petrochemical products, ii) global economic conditions, and iii) utilization of its production facilities based on demand.

Source: OSK188

No comments:

Post a Comment