• Guinness Anchor Bhd (Guinness) posted a higher net profit
of RM68mil for 2Q, bringing the total to RM121mil for 1H. Annualised, interim
net profit is 28% above our forecast and 24% above consensus. We deem the
results at half time to be a tad above expectations, given an anticipated strong 2HFY12F on the back of
the UEFA European Football Championship special world event from 8 June -1
July.
• Consequently, our FY12F-14F earnings forecasts havebeen
tweaked upwards by 3%-8%. We now project net profit to grow 13% YoY to RM205mil
for FY12F.
• Our earnings model
takes into account a marginal margin compression due to higher costs of raw materials, packaging and
distribution, which are due to kick-in over the next few quarters. As an
indication, packaging costs and price of malting barley for CY12 are circa
30%-40% higher YoY.
• Guiness’s turnover and net profit for 1HFY12 surged 16% and
17% on a YoY basis. This was attributed mainly to:- 1) Increased beer volumes
amid successful events (Tiger Street Football, Arthur’s Day and Heineken
Thirst), and 2) Enhancement of the route-to-market strategy.
• Guinness Stout remains as the star performer, while Heineken
continues to chalk up a double-digit growth. Tiger, the group’s main earnings driver, is
estimated to have maintained market leadership within the mainstream malt
liquor segment.
• On a sequential basis, 2Q turnover and net profit was up 5%
and 19%, respectively. Apart from this quarter being heavily seasonal due to
Christmas and the New Year celebrations, bottom line growth was boosted by a
2.3ppts improvement in EBITDA margin from lower costs of goods sold.
• Management declared a single-tier interim dividend of 10 sen/share
for this quarter, similar to previous years. Including a special interim
dividend of 60 sen/share declared in December 2011, dividends total 70
sen/share for 1HFY12. No change to our dividend forecast of 117sen/share for
FY12F.
• No change to our HOLD recommendation on Guinness with a
DCF-based fair value of RM13.55/share (WACC:8.9%). At the current share price, the stock still
offers a decent 5% dividend yield, premised on an established dividend payout
of 90% per annum.
Source: Amesecurities
No comments:
Post a Comment