Wednesday, 29 February 2012

GENM (FV RM4.32 - BUY) FY11 Results Review: Mild Headwinds


The group’s full-year FY11 results were in line with our estimates but marginally beat consensus numbers by 8%. Despite the recent setback in Miami and depletion of the group’s net cash balance to just RM343m as at Dec 2011, its free cash flow remains robust at RM1.2bn p.a, underpinning its capacity for future acquisitions. The maiden full-year contribution from RWNY to earnings in FY12 is expected to drive group earnings by 19.6%. Maintain BUY, and  at  a fair value of RM4.32, backed by its alluring 8.1x EV/EBITDA.

In line. Adjusting for various exceptional items, the group’s FY11 core earnings were in line with our estimates, with its full-year core FY11 earnings representing 102.1% of our full-year forecast but a larger 108% of consensus. EBITDA and net profit expanded 15.1% and 11.2% respectively on better hold rates at its domestic VIP gaming business and  maiden contribution from its UK business. On a q-o-q comparison, EBITDA contracted 1.9% q-o-q, largely owing to a RM40.9m construction loss from cost overruns from the development of Resort World at New York (RWNY) which it incurred in 4Q11. Excluding the construction loss,  the group’s  core operations reported a 5.7% q-o-q increase in EBITDA, driven by the higher business volume from Malaysia and a maiden RM23.6m contribution from RWNY, which commenced operation on 28 Oct 2011. Meanwhile, casino  visitation  in UK stood at +5% in London and +9% at provincial casinos.

Malaysian casino op resilient. Its Malaysian casino operation, which  comprises  the bulk of group earnings (at 90%), reported 7% y-o-y and +6% y-o-y growth in revenue and earnings respectively,  although  4Q11 revenue contracted 1% q-o-q on the back of  a lower win percentage. Foreign visitor growth was driven by Singapore and Indonesia, from which visitation was higher by 6% and 8% respectively for the FY11 period despite fierce competition from the operation ramp-up by Singapore’s integrated resorts. More importantly, hotel arrivals from Singapore were higher than the pre-Singapore IR levels as Genting Highlands’ lower price points and cool mountain air continue to be a key draw for mass market visitation.  

Source: OSK188

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