- We are maintaining our BUY rating on Public Bank Bhd (PBB),
with an unchanged fair value of RM16.70/share. This is based on a revised ROE
for FY12F of 22.9% (vs. 23.2% previously), but a higher book value at
RM5.00/share (vs. RM4.94/share previously). This leads to a fair P/BV of 3.3x.
- PBB’ 1Q if annualised are in line with our estimates, but about
1.1% above consensus forecast. However, taking into account that PBB’s 1Q is
usually the slowest quarter (due to a shorter February working month), we would
consider 1Q to be ahead for expectations.
- In terms of full adoption of FRS139 accounting standard, the
adjustment has been much more positive than what we had earlier anticipated.
Collective assessment, as a percentage
of gross loans less individual assessment balance carried forward, has now been
adjusted down to 0.8% from 1.5%. This is lower than our forecast of 1%.
- Consequently, the write-back to book value (shareholders’ funds)
came up to RM859mil or RM0.24/share, above our expected RM700mil. This enhanced
book value by 5.8%. This essentially means that part of PBB’s previous accumulated
conservative loan loss provisioning (which in our view is arbitrary, and not
required given its excellent asset quality) is now reversed to
shareholders.
- There was no requirement to classify the amount written back
into a new regulatory reserve account (which we had expected to be classified
as Tier 2 capital), under the shareholders’ funds. Instead, the entire
write-back is allowed to be posted to retained earnings, and therefore to Tier
1 capital and core equity capital.
- PBB said the write-back has enhanced its Core Equity Ratio
by 0.5%. On a QoQ basis, core Equity Ratio rose to 7.8% in March 2012, from
7.5% in Dec 2011. The boost to core equity ratio is way above our expectation,
as we had expected the write-back to be classified as Tier 2 capital.
- More importantly, we can confirm that there is no restriction
in the amount written back into retained earnings in the sense that this is distributable
as dividend in future. This affirms our view that dividend should remain firmly
on an upward trend. We are projectingdividend to rise by 10% YoY for FY12F, 13%
FY13F, and 13% for FY14F.
- We believe rerating catalysts from here onwards are :- (a)
better-than-expected top line growth for both loans and non-interest income;
(b) steady rise in absolute dividend; (c) confirmation of benign impaired loans
and credit costs.
Source: AmeSecurites
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