- IHS Petrodata reported that day rates for mid-water depth
semi-submersible drilling rigs worldwide have decreased considerably in April,
while jack-up rates have risen significantly (See Chart 1-4). But the
resilience of the overall rig market is still demonstrated in deepwater rig
rates, which augurs well for key Malaysian players against a backdrop of global
rig utilisation rising to 81% from 80.6% in the previous month (See Chart 6)
amid reaccelerating development programmes.
- The strongest charter rate increase was in the Northwest Europe
Standard Jack-ups, which surged by 103 points to 589. Fleet utilisation
remained unchanged at 90% for the third consecutive month. As rig availability
remains tight with demand still strong for standard jack-ups in this region,
this segment’s charter rates could continue on an upward trend.
- The US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Jack-up Day Rate Index (250 to
300-feet) rose by 7 points to 314 in April 2012, the highest level over the
past three years since February 2009. GOM fleet utilisation rose by 1ppt to 59%
with further possible upside, as the Obama administration begins to approve
more offshore oil & gas activities.
- After surging strongly to its highest level since April
2009 (in the aftermath of the global financial crisis), the Deepwater Rig Day
Rate Index (for rigs operating at water depths of over 5,000 feet) dipped
slightly to 893 this month. However, this is nearly 200 points higher than the
day rate index recorded during April 2011. Fleet utilisation remains almost
full at an unchanged 98% this month, highlighting the resiliency and potential
uptrend of this market segment.
- The Mid-Water Depth Semi-submersible Day Rate Index (for
water depths of 2,001 to 5,000 feet) dropped by 123 points to 669 in April.
While this is considerably lower than rates recorded during April last year, it
is still higher than the mid-2010 lows when the index fell to 550 points.
Utilisation for this category of rig is unchanged over the past quarter at 79%
in April.
- Firm global rig rates in the medium-to-long term underpin
prospects for local rig operators such as UMW Oil & Gas, Kencana Petroleum,
SapuraCrest Petroleum and Perisai Petroleum. We expect fresh news over the next
few months from Petronas’ RM15bil fast-tracked programme to develop gas reserves
from a cluster of fields in the North Malay basin, off Peninsular Malaysia as
well as other enhanced oil recovery jobs in East Malaysia. News flow momentum
is also gaining traction for Petronas Carigali’s and Murphy Oil’s floating
liquefied natural gas vessels for the Kanowit and Rotan fields respectively. France-based
Total and Petronas Carigali are currently drilling landmark exploration wells
into deep high-pressure, high temperature reservoirs such as the Saujana, Restu
and SK 317B-1X fields, off Peninsula Malaysia. These involve drilling to an
extremely deep 4,500 metres and encountering temperatures up to 250 degrees
Celcius. These uncharted developments are likely to require more complex
engineering capabilities.
- Hence, we maintain MMHE as our top pick in the sector as
it is the only domestic yard which has a proven track record in complex
engineering platforms with deepwater capabilities. We retain our OVERWEIGHT view on the sector
with our other BUY calls being Bumi Armada, Dialog, SapuraCrest, Kencana
Petroleum and Petronas Gas.
Source: AmeSecurities
No comments:
Post a Comment