Monday 3 December 2012

Banking Sector - Unexpected bright spots in retail segments OVERWEIGHT


- Slower indicators in October. Loans applications growth was flat in October 2012, in contrast to a relatively healthy recovery of 9.1% in September 2012. The corporate segment loans approved continued to decline, by 20.5% (September 2012: -20.6%).

- But unexpected bright spots in the retail (household) loans approved. There were some unexpected bright spots in the household segment’s loans approved, which came in surprisingly stronger at 12.4% in October 2012 (September 2012: 10.1%). 

- This was boosted by both the residential mortgage… Residential mortgage segment growth rebounded to 11.1% in October 2012 after a flat 0.4% growth in September 2012, and at -12.7% in August 2012. 

- …and auto segments.  The auto segment loans approved growth rebounded to 20.5%, from a slow 2.8% in September 2012. We believe this could be due to some pent-up demand in auto, as there were reduced expectations of cuts in excise duty for vehicles. 

- Gross impaired loans improved with a -1.8% MoM decline or a drop of RM426mil in October 2012. For September 2012, the banking statistics have now been adjusted with the gross impaired loans now lowered by 0.9% on a MoM basis or –RM209.7mil. The data is thus different from the previously reported increase of RM815mil, or 3.5% MoM for September 2012. Gross impaired loans ratio was at 2.1% in October 2012, unchanged from September 2012’s 2.1%.  

- Maintain overweight.  The October 2012’s leading loan indicators remained subdued. However, there was surprisingly strong growth in the October 2012’s residential mortgage and auto loans approved. In addition, the better gross impaired loans is reassuring. Our buys are CIMB. HLBB and PBB.

Source: AmeSecurities

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