Thursday 27 December 2012

2013 STRATEGY – EDUCATION (NEUTRAL)


2012  a  mixed  year.  2012  was  a  year  of  mixed  fortunes  for  the  education  counters  under  our coverage, as HELP  (NEUTRAL;  FV  RM1.93), SEGi  (NEUTRAL;  FV  RM2.09), and Masterskill all failed to make the earnings grade due to  slowing enrolment amid growing competition. The year’s sole bright spot was Prestariang  (BUY;  FV  RM2.15), which saw its share price surging over 60% YTD as management announced that the company is venturing into tertiary education via the setting up of a niche computing university in Cyberjaya.

Tough  tussle  in  tertiary  space.  At  the  macro  level,  we  noticed  that  there  were  a  number  of status  upgrades  among  existing  tertiary  education  providers  over  the  last  year.  Established players like HELP and SEGi have been upgraded to university  status while their smaller peers have  likewise  been  upgraded  to  MAHSA  University,  Nilai  University,  Kuala  Lumpur Infrastructure  University  and Binary  University.  We  attribute  the  upgrades  to  escalating competition  in  the  industry  as  most  education  players  gear  up  to  attract  more  students  by improving  their  respective  branding.  We  foresee  more  advertising  and  marketing  activities  in 2013,  with  a  potential  price  war  on  the horizon.  This  we  believe could  eat  into  overall margins and take a toll on sectorial earnings.

Funding  woes  gradually  being  addressed.  On  the  positive  side,  the  Government  reiterated during the year that the National Higher Education Loan Fund Corporation (PTPTN), estimated to have an outstanding balance of over RM45bn,  would not be abolished. To encourage timely repayments,  discounts  were  offered  to  existing  borrowers,  as  a  result  of  which  the  collection rate improved substantially from 47% in 2011 to  85% this year. To ensure sustainability of the system,  we  foresee  more  incentives  being  offered  going  forward  as  the  Government  gets increasingly stringent in narrowing the country’s existing budget deficit.

Opportunities in private primary and secondary space. Following the release of the National Education Blueprint, in which the Government identified the shortcomings of Malaysia’s existing primary  and  secondary  education  systems,  we  expect  private  education  players  in  Malaysia playing  a  more  significant  role  to  address  some  of  these  weaknesses.  For  instance,  there  are currently 68 international schools in Malaysia with 27k students in total, of which 43% are locals. This  is  a  staggering  >100%  increase  over  the  last  five  years,  in  tandem  with  the  increasing number  of  mid-  to  upper-income  households  in  the  country.  Going  forward,  we  see  plenty  of untapped  potential  in  the  international  schools  universe  due  to  the  underserved  demand  from parents  clamouring  for  better  quality  education  and  willing  to  pay  a  premium  for  it.  With  the Government  championing  expatriate-friendly  regulations  such  as  the  Malaysia  My  Second Home  programme  and  setting  a target of 75k students in Malaysia’s international schools by 2020,  we  see  these  moves  further  stimulating  demand  for  quality  private  education  from expatriates. Among the companies under our coverage, HELP and SEGi have proposed to set up their own international schools, which are expected to commence classes in 4Q13 and mid-2015 respectively. 

NEUTRAL.  We  are  maintaining  our  NEUTRAL  stance  on  the  sector  as  we  believe  the heightening competition could potentially hurt profits in tertiary education in the near term. This is  already  evident  in  the  disappointing  YTD  earnings  reported  by  HELP  and  SEGi,  as  well  as Masterskill  (on  which  we  ceased  coverage  earlier  this  year). While  we  see  potential  in  private primary  and  secondary  education,  none  of  the  stocks  under  our  coverage  currently  have  a presence in this segment. Prestariang (BUY; FV RM2.15) remains as our top sector buy as we expect a slew of positive news relating to its proposed university specializing in Malaysia’s first-of-its-kind computer engineering courses.
Source: OSK

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