Wednesday 19 December 2012

British American Tobacco (M) - The Making of a Good Puff


We  recently  brought  11  fund  managers  and  buy-side  analysts  to  visit  British American Tobacco (BAT)’s cigarette factory in Petaling Jaya, Selangor.  Apart from  catering  to  the domestic  market,  the  factory  –  a  Tier 1  cigarette  producer  –also  exports  to  quality-conscious  first world  nations.  The  highly  efficient  factory is  constantly  seeking  ways  to  cut  wastage  and  localize  raw  materials.  We  are, however, maintaining our SELL and RM56.22 FV, not due to corporate governance issues, but on the stock’s stretched valuations and murky industry prospects.

Top-class manufacturer. The Malaysian factory is listed as a Tier 1 factory, which is a mark  of  its  quality  control  being  good  enough  to  meet  the  high  expectations  of  export markets such as Japan. Tier 2 and 3 factories such as the one in Bangladesh (not under BAT  Malaysia)  focus  on  keeping  costs  low  (one  way  is  via  cheaper  labour)  and  target the  domestic  market.  Cigarette  manufacturing  largely  involves  two  of BAT’s major departments  in  Malaysia,  which  in  total  employ  about  160  people.  The  factory manufactures BAT’s key brands, including Dunhill, Pall Mall, Kent and Peter Stuyvesant.  

Shipping  across  the  Asia  Pacific.  The  Malaysian  factory,  which  can  manufacture  up to  20bn  cigarette  sticks  annually,  produces  about  15.5bn  sticks  each  year,  of  which 8.9bn  are  for  domestic  consumption.  Some  3.5bn  sticks  a  year  are  shipped  to  Japan, making the East Asian nation the biggest export destination for BAT.  The group’s other export markets are South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia.

Save, save, save. One of the factory’s key foci (and any other factory, for that matter) is to improve efficiency, and accordingly, enhance profits. That is why the export market is important to the company, although the margins fetched are substantially lower than that from the domestic market. The factory’s high production volume enables it to spread out its  fixed  costs  while  at  the  same  time  enjoy  favourable  prices  in  sourcing  its  raw materials. Other ways to cut cost are to reduce wastage (currently at 2.4%) and localize certain  raw  materials.  For  example,  the  Malaysian  factory  only  produces  plain  filters, whereas the charcoal and capsule filters are imported. It also imports relock packaging, commonly used in Dunhill. Efforts are underway to localize relock packaging production.

Maintain  SELL.  We  value  BAT  at  a  FV  of  RM56.22,  based  on  FCFF  (WACC:  5.5%, terminal  growth:  1.0%).  Undeniably,  the  company  is  a  shining  example  of  good corporate  governance  and  dominates  market  share  on  the  local  front.  However,  the industry’s  growth  prospects  are  clouded  with  regulatory  risks  that are  likely  to  intensify after the impending general election.
FROM LEAF TO SMOKE
   
The  making  of  a  cigarette.  Cigarette  manufacturing  is  split  between  BAT’s  Primary  Manufacturing Department  (PMD)  and  Secondary  Manufacturing  Department (SMD). PMD’s key task is to process the tobacco leaves while SMD produces the cigarettes and packages them for distribution.

Processing the leaves. The PMD process is pretty straightforward. Dry tobacco leaves, packed in boxes of 200kg each, first undergo the moisturizing process whereby the leaves are steamed to reach a 23% moisture level. This process facilitates cutting as dry leaves will crumble when shredded. Too much moisture, on the other hand, will cause sogginess. After the large leaves (see Figure 1) are cut into shreds, they are dried to a moisture level of 13%-14%. Moisture levels are kept at the higher 14% range when intended for consumption in  warmer,  more  humid  weather  (eg.  Malaysia)  while  moisture  content  is  lowered  to  13%  if  targeted  for consumption  in  cooler  temperatures  (eg.  Japan).  Some  edible  ingredients,  such  as  cocoa,  sugar  and  fruit extract, may be blended with the leaves to create the characteristic taste  of a certain brand. The leaf shreds are then sent to SMD for further value-add.
Local  vs  foreign.  BAT  has  its  own  tobacco  estates  in  Kelantan  and  Terengganu.  There  is  currently  a Government  mandate  requiring  70%  of  the company’s tobacco  leaf  used  to  be  produced  locally. While  the factory  manager  finds  Malaysian  tobacco  leaf  to  be  as  good  as  the  imported  ones,  the  local  leaves  are substantially more expensive. Furthermore, leaves produced within Malaysian shores are only of the Virginian variety, so the company has to import Burley, Oriental and some Virginia tobacco from the Americas and the Balkans.  Different  leaves  from  the  same  tobacco  plant  may  have  slightly  differing  flavour,  with  the  younger leaves being of better quality.

Transforming  leaf  to  stick.  There  are  overhead  tubes  connecting  PMD  and  SMD,  where  air  suction  is applied to transport the processed leaves through the tubes to SMD. One of SMD’s tasks is to produce 88mm-108mm filter rods, which are made of cotton-like materials known as cellulose acetate fibres. The filter rods are later sliced into four as each cigarette’s filter is 22mm-27mm in length. Various filters have different pressure drops, whereby a filter with a higher pressure drop will be harder to draw (i.e. harder to suck) and thus provide less ‘kick’. The cigarette is then made by wrapping the filter in paper and slotting the leaves from PMD into the tobacco rod.
The  final  package.  BAT’s packaging line produces 400 packets per minute. A cigarette packet has four components: i) the tear tape, ii) polywrap, iii) paper packet (planks), and iv) foil. As the factory also produces cigarettes  under  a subcontract  manufacturing agreement  with  the  other  BATs  in  the  Asia  Pacific  region,  we saw packaging targeted for the Japan and Hong Kong markets as well as the olive green plain packaging for Australia. Each packet contains 20 cigarette sticks.
Source: OSK

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