Thursday 20 December 2012

OCK Group - Undemanding valuations


INVESTMENT MERIT
-  Strong 9M12 results. OCK’s 9M12 net profit of 10.0m was accounted for 93.5% of our full-year  NP estimate (Please refer to our OCK’s IPO note dated on 5 July). The better than expected 9M12 result was mainly boosted by its Telco network service's division, which revenue has recorded at RM77.9m vs RM88.7m for the full FY in our earlier estimate. Margin wise, the group’s  EBIT and PBT margin of 15.7% and 13.0%, respectively, were within our expectation. OCK also announced  its maiden 0.5 sen dividend in conjunction with its 3Q12 result. For the full FY, we understand that management intends to distribute 1.0 sen dividend, translate to a dividend yield of 2.2% and payout ratio of 14.4%.   
 
-  Aiming higher in FY13. Moving forward, the group is targeting to build 100-150 telecommunication towers in FY13 with an aim to achieve 20%-30% YoY revenue growth, according to the recent press report. We also understand that OCK has started to approach some bankers to finance the abovementioned expansion plan. 

-  Target to transfer to Main Market in 2013. After successfully listed on ACE Market in July 2012, we understand that OCK is now aiming transfer to Bursa Malaysia Main Market in 2013. The transfer of listing will improve the group’s company profile and increase its chances in clinching more deals in the future. 

-  Raised FY12-FY13 earning's estimate.  Post 9M12 result, we have raised our OCK net profit forecast by 17.7% and 13.5% to RM12.6m and RM15.4m, respectively, after imputing higher revenue assumption for its telco network services division.   

-  Valuation remains undemanding.  OCK is currently trading at 7.5x FY13 PER, which is higher as compared to an average 6.7x FTSE bursa Malaysia small capital index (“FBMSC”) forward PER. We value OCK at RM0.48 with a TRADING BUY recommendation, based on a targeted FY13 PER of 8.0x. We believe the group desired a higher PER due to its undemanding PEG ratio of 0.3x vs FBMSC’s average of 0.6x.   

SWOT ANALYSIS
-  Strength:  Covers  more  than  90%  of  the  major  technology providers in Malaysia. The largest Tier-1 Market Player.
-  Weaknesses: Small market capitalisation.
-  Opportunities:  Capitalising on the trends in telecommunication infrastructure collaboration. 
-  Threats: Regulation and political risks.
TECHNICALS
-  Resistance: RM0.46 (R1), RM0.50 (R2)
-  Support: RM0.44 (S1), RM0.40 (S2)
-  Comments: OCK's share price had been trading mostly sideways since the IPO in July.  The indicators have also flatlined in recent months. A break out in either the RM0.46 resistance or the RM0.44 support should offer some direction to the stock. Until then, we expect the stock to remain rangebound.

BUSINESS OVERVIEW
OCK Group Bhd (“OCK”, BURSA CODE: 0172) was was established in 2000 which principally involved in the provision of telecommunications network services. The group are able to provide turnkey solutions, which include design, build and maintain all means of telecommunications network infrastructure for its telecommunication clientele. In addition, the group completed implementation works for major local cellular network operators, including Maxis, Celcom, Digi, U Mobile, P1 and YTL.
The top three largest customers for the group were Digi, Ericsson and Huawei that accounted for 16.5%, 13.0% and 9.0% respectively to the group’s total revenue of RM88.3m in FY11.

BUSINESS SEGMENTS
Its principal activities are mainly categorised into four segments, namely - Telecommunications Network Services Solutions contributed more than 70% to the group’s total revenue of RM102.8m in 9M12 to its targeted telecommunications clienteles. 

Trading of Telco And Network Product.  Trading telco network equipment and materials e.g. Antennas, Connectors

- Green Energy And Power Solution.  Supply of power generation equipment e.g. Gen-sets , Transformers.

- M&E Engineering Services. Provision of M&E Engineering Services in collaboration with construction companies on a sub-contract basis. Particularly cater for non-telco sector customers.  

Source: Kenanga

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