Thursday 20 December 2012

AEON Credit Services - More Strong Quarterly Results


AEON  Credit  (ACSM)’s  9MFY13  earnings  of  RM94.9m  were  within  estimates, representing  75.6%  and  79.2%  of  our  and  consensus’  full-year  forecasts respectively.  Revenue  and  core  net  profit  jumped  34.2%  and  39.8%  y-o-y,  while 
expenses  grew  in  tandem  at  a  31%  y-o-y  pace.  By  segment, the group’s growth momentum  remained  intact,  with  personal  financing  surging  116.6%,  credit  card (+22.6%)  and  motor  easy  payment  (+29.2%).  Although  NPLs  inched  up  to  1.81% (1H13:  1.53%), this is no cause for concern as it is within ACSM’s historical average. Maintain NEUTRAL with RM14.00 FV.

Another string of good numbers. ACSM’s 9MFY13 core net profit of RM94.9m was in line with our and consensus’ full-year expectations, making up by 75.6% and 79.2% of both  estimates  respectively.  This  was  on  the  back  of  revenue  of  RM335.4m,  which climbed  34.2%  y-o-y. Meanwhile, the group’s  3Q  core  net  profit  grew  8.2%  q-o-q  and 37% y-o-y, while its YTD operating income surged 35%, in tandem with a 45% surge in overall  transaction  volume.  Each  segment’s  performance  was  largely  within  our operating  income  forecasts,  save  for  personal  financing,  which  continued  to  exceed expectations with 116.6% y-o-y and 14.4% q-o-q growth. The credit card segment grew 22.6% y-o-y, partly attributed to an expanded credit card base (9MFY13: 165k vs FY12: 160k).  The group’s easy payment schemes also exhibited good growth (General  Easy Payment: y-o-y +13.7%, Motor Easy Payment: +29.2%) but expenses also went up, by 31% y-o-y, in tandem with income growth.

NPLs ratio close to average. The latest non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio deteriorated to 1.81% during the quarter under review (1HFY13: 1.53%), which is still in line with the historical average. We do not see this as a concern as we believe the group’s NPL ratio had been abnormally low in the preceding quarter due to the Hari Raya seasonal effect. That said, in view of the company’s prudent capital management, we do not see any spike in its NPLs after this quarter.

More provisioning plus recovery of bad debts. There was a RM46.1m improvement in net credit cost YTD (excluding recovery of bad debts amounting to RM16.6m YTD). In the  quarter  under  review,  net  credit  costs  rose  to  RM19.7m  from  RM13.3m  in  the preceding  quarter  as  allowances  for  impairment  losses  rose  by  about  RM5.8m  to RM25.0m while bad debts recovered was largely flat at RM5.3m. This led to ACSM’s net credit cost to receivables inching up 100bps to 3.93%.

Maintain  NEUTRAL. We  maintain  our  NEUTRAL  call,  with  FV  at  RM14.00,  pegged  to 12.3x on FY14 EPS. As there is some 16% upside to our FV, we are reviewing our call on the stock. 
Rating upgrade on debt facility unlikely to be a boost.  On 5 Dec, RAM Ratings upgraded the long-term (LT) rating of ACSM’s MTN programme by a notch to ‘AAA’ with a stable outlook. This was due to a concurrent upgrade of the LT ratings of several of the said debt facility’s guarantors, Mizuho Corporate Bank and Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. While this is good news to ACSM, we are of the view that the upgrade would have little positive impact on ACSM’s funding costs as the RM400m MTN programme is close to its maturity  date  of  Jan-2014.  Assuming  that  the  same  guarantors  also  secure  other  unrated  debt  obligations outside the MTN programme, we would expect the total borrowings that will be affected to be small relative to these guarantors’ overall short-term  and  LT  debts.  Hence,  we  do  not  expect  to  see  a  sizeable  reduction  in ACSM’s funding costs.
Source: OSK

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