Thursday, 1 March 2012

EPMB (FV RM1.38 - BUY) FY11 Results Review: Driving Into a Better Year


EPMB’s 4Q numbers were hit by higher raw material prices and interest expenses although these were  offset by a tax deferred credit. The higher costs  led to  a sharp drop in margins, which shrank 3ppts to 3.34%. We remain positive on EPMB as  we expect the company’s  earnings  to be  propelled by  higher revenue from Proton and Perodua. As such, we maintain our earnings projections, with our BUY call retained. Our FV of RM1.38 is premised on a cheap 5x FY12 PE.

Hit by higher financing costs. EPMB recorded a poor set of results operationally in 4Q as its financing costs soared 42% q-o-q and 107% y-o-y amid higher raw material prices, despite  chalking up  stronger sales during the quarter.   Nonetheless, its  weaker bottomline was offset by a substantial deferred tax credit, which cushioned the overall impact.  Stripping  off  unrealized forex losses which we consider as exceptional items, EPMB reported a FY11 core net profit of RM39.4m (y-o-y: +53%, 4Q: q-o-q: -4%) on the back of RM577m revenue (y-o-y: -2%, q-o-q: +19%), which was in line with our estimate but slightly above consensus.

4Q margins pinched. 4Q margins  shrank as raw material prices  shot up, causing the company’s EBIT margins to halve to 3.34% from 7.3% in the previous quarter. We also suspect that this could also be due to higher depreciation costs.

Prospects remain bright on more contracts.  We remain positive on EPMB as  the company’s  earnings are  to be boosted by  higher revenue, spurred by  the upcoming launch of Proton’s new Persona  replacement  sometime in the next 2 months. We understand  that  EPMB  is  supplying  the  auto components  for this model.  Meanwhile, Perodua is also expanding aggressively into the export market, which bodes well for EPMB. The carmaker is also said to be looking to expand to the Middle East market.

Maintain BUY. We maintain our earnings projection, with our BUY call retained. Our FV of RM1.38 is premised on a cheap 5x FY12 PE.

Source: OSK188

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