AMWAY (M) is our top pick for 2Q12 for the consumerretail
sector with an OUTPERFORM recommendation at
a TP of RM10.94. AMWAY has been a consistently profitable company, with
its sales having grown at a CAGR of 6.8% since the last ten years and its net
profit at a CAGR of 5.6%. In effect, AMWAY’s bottom line has grown 11.5% per
annum on average since 2009 and we expect it to continue to rise to 11.1% this
year and a smaller 6.5% in FY13. The drivers would be the number of
distributors growth rate (5.1% and 5.0% forecast in FY12 and FY13) and a
continued rise in its revenue per distributor driven by the rise in private
spending (our in-house economist is projecting a 6.8% rise in private spending
for both FY12 and FY13).
We believe AMWAY deserves a fair value of RM10.94, based on
18x PER on its FY12 EPS of RM0.608 (a slight premium with the average MLM and
non-MLM retail related stocks and the current average FBMKLCI PER of 16.0x). This premium we believe is
warranted due to the company’s strong track record in growing its sales consistently
and the resiliency of its business profitability. More importantly, this
outperformance is set to continue, in our view. Our current fair value offers a
total upside of 19.4% for the stock (capital upside of 12.7% and dividend yield
of 6.7%), which is much higher than that of our projected FBMKLCI’s 1 year
forward estimated total return of 6.3%. Our conviction is hence quite clear –
Buy AMWAY up to RM10.94 at market.
Estimated 11% market
share. The company is one of the largest MLMbased companies in Malaysia
with an estimated market share of 11% locally and its sales products are
predominantly sourced from US, ranging from segments such as nutrition &
wellness, skin care & cosmetics, personal care, home care and home tech. Consistent
performer. In addition, AMWAY has been a consistent performer in terms of its
share price performance on Bursa Malaysia, where the stock recorded an average
total return of 8% p.a. among the top four performers on the local exchange in
the last 8 years.
Clean balance sheet.
AMWAY also has a clean balance sheet filled with cash (net cash of RM123m) and
the company’s ROE and ROA of 44.6% and 28.7% are the highest among its peers.
A potential good
dividend paymaster. Amway Malaysia
has never incurred any borrowings since its listing. With low capex and
advertising cost, the company is able to grow its cash pile, which in turn is
used by the company to principally reward its shareholders handsomely via
dividends.
Immediate plans going
forward. Amway plans to introduce 9
new products going forward of which 6 are from its beauty line, which generally
makes up around 50% of the company’s sales. The group also intends to source
more products for the Malay market, which currently contributes only 20% of the
group’s sales. Other than that, the group is also looking at converting more of
its RDCs into ‘AMWAY shops,’ with two being converted last year while another
3-4 more conversions are expected this year. We are positive on these
strategies, which should further improve the company’s earnings growth
both for the short and long term.
Source: Kenanga
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