Monday, 3 December 2012

MMC Corporation - 3Q12 results below expectations


Period    3Q12/9M12

Actual vs.  Expectations  The 9M12 results came in below expectations. The 9M12 core net profit of RM182m only accounted for 52% and 46% of ours and the consensus’ FY12 full year forecasts. The lower than expected earnings were mainly due to higher expectation of the earnings contribution from the Gamuda-MMC JV this year, which now looks like it will only make a more meaningful contribution next year.

Dividends  As expected, no dividend was declared.

Key Result Highlights    YoY, the 9M12 core net profit of RM182m increased by 62% despite a lower revenue growth of 8%. This was mainly due to the strong contribution from its energy division i.e. Malakoff due to a higher energy volume despatch during the year but this was mitigated by a lower revenue contribution from Gas Malaysia.
   
 QoQ, the 3Q12 revenue and core net profit fell 18% and 34% respectively. This was due to the higher operating cost for its port’s operation and lower revenue contribution from its transport division. To recap, MMC recorded a RM750m gain from the disposal of Gas Malaysia upon its listing in 2Q12. However, note that this is excluded from our core net profit computation.     

Outlook   There will be no meaningful contribution from the Gamuda-MMC JV in FY12. The material contribution will only start in 2Q13 as the tunnelling work starts. The relisting of Malakoff could put MMC back in the limelight of new flows next year (2013).

Change to Forecasts  We have toned down our FY12 earnings by 23% as we pushed the earnings contribution from GamudaMMC JV to FY13.

Rating     Maintain MARKET PERFORM
 We are maintaining our MARKET PERFORM recommendation despite the positive news flows expected in FY13 as the coming general election could raise the sentiment risk on the stock.

Valuation    We are maintaining our fair value at RM2.80 based on SOP valuation.

Risks   Delays in the construction of MRT works and the late delivery of MRT’s TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine).

Source: Kenanga 

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