Thursday, 31 May 2012

UMW Holdings Bhd - MARKET PERFORM - 30 May 2012


Period    1QFY12/3MFY12

Actual vs.  Expectations
 Within the consensus and our expectations. The 1QFY12 net profit made up 29% and 28% of ours and the consensus’ forecasts of RM765.1m and RM791.5m respectively.

Dividends   No dividend was declared.

Key Result Highlights
 YoY, the bottom line improved by 45%. Toyota and Lexus sales have increased by 7.4% as the group recouped its 2011 production shortfalls.  

 QoQ, 1Q12 net earnings of RM220m made a significant jump from RM50.5m in 4Q, mainly boosted by stronger earnings from its oil and gas (O&G) (+216%) as well as equipment divisions (+321%), which recorded a profit from a loss previously. 

 This was mainly due to stronger overall demand, particularly from the mining sub-sector and construction. The company also secured new contracts for the marine and power equipments. In addition, the additional full quarter contributions by Naga 3 and Hakuryu 5 as well as from the Garraf Power Plant Phase 1 project also contributed to the earnings.

Outlook   Neutral. 

 We expect a better 1H12 for UMW as the group should see improvements in most of its segments. The automotive division should expect pent-up demand, which should see a better YoY rebound for auto sale. 

 Meanwhile, there is also a brighter outlook for the O&G division due to positive developments such as a 15% increase in day rates for Naga 3 and newly secured projects like Gait-1, Oil India and Longitudinal Submerged Arc-Welded pipes to Oman. 

Change to Forecasts
 We have revised our earnings up for FY12-13 by 7.2%-8.7% to RM832.6m-RM928.8m after adjusting for higher contributions from its O&G and equipment divisions.

Rating  MAINTAIN MARKET PERFORM
Sector driven call. 

Valuation    Inline with our earnings revision, we have raised our target price from RM7.45 to RM7.98 based on an unchanged FY12E PER of 10.0x. 

Risks   Prolonged effect from the credit tightening measures

Source: Kenanga 

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