Tuesday, 29 May 2012

PERDANA (FV RM0.90- BUY) 1QFY12 Results Review: A Turnaround is at Hand


Perdana’s 1QFY12 results were within expectations. Although it was still in the red for 1QFY12, we believe the company’s net losses are narrowing and we expect Perdana  to turn around soon, with more jobs coming from Petronas and its PSC contractors as well as Dayang – its strategic partner that will help it secure more new jobs. Maintain Buy.

Within expectations. In our view, although Perdana was still in the red for 1QFY12, we are seeing a slight recovery in this quarter’s results, with its net loss narrowing to RM8.2m from RM48.6m  in 4QFY11. Of course, the losses  in  4QFY11 were inflated by the impairment of old vessels  amounting to RM39.3m  and stripping out this write-down, the 4QFY11 loss from operations would be RM9.3m. Also, we can also draw comfort from the fact that the utilization rate of its vessels had improved along with the increasing O&G activities in Malaysia. However, vessel chartering in 1QFY12 failed to reach its optimum level due to the monsoon season. On a YTD comparison, there was minimal variance in its net profit as both quarters were also affected by the monsoon season.
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Brighter prospects expected going forward. In our view, we believe the worst is over for Perdana because: (i) it has already made the bulk of the provisions or amortized most of its old vessels, (ii) management is now operating using a leaner fleet of vessels with a balanced mix of brownfield and deepwater vessels at a ratio of about 50:50, (iii) Perdana has Dayang as its strategic partner and  they can help one another  – Dayang will help secure new vessel contracts while Perdana would provide the required vessels, and  (iv) there will be more jobs by Petronas and its PSC contractors soon, especially on marginal oilfield and enhanced oil recovery developments. The only  uncertainty remains  is  the timing of new contract awards by Petronas and its PSC contractors as Perdana is really in need  of  new awards  considering that most of its vessels are on short-term charter. Although  charter  rates remain attractive, the utilization rate continues to swing from two extreme ends due to the lack of longer-term contracts.

Maintain Buy.  Our fair value for Perdana remains unchanged at RM0.90 based on  the existing PER of 12x FY12 EPS. Given that its share price had retraced quite significantly following  renewed concerns over  the European  debt crisis, we advise investors to accumulate Perdana shares on weakness as we expect the share price to rebound when the company shows more concrete signs of  a turnaround, especially after securing new jobs.

Source: OSK

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