Thursday, 31 May 2012

Telekom Malaysia -OUTPERFORM- 31 May 2012


Period    1Q12

Actual vs.  Expectations
 1Q12 core NP of RM183m came in slightly above the street and our estimate due mainly to a lower direct cost and a lower effective tax rate. 

 The NP effectively made up 27.3% and 25.3% of ours and the street’s full year estimates respectively.

Dividends   No dividend was announced during the quarter.

Key Result Highlights
 YoY, revenue rose by 11% to RM2.38b, driven by higher contribution from all its segments, i.e. Voice (+3%), Data (+11%), Internet (+24%) and other telco related services (17%). Reported EBITDA grew by 7% to RM783m although the margin dipped by 1.2pp to 32.4% mainly due to the higher direct and maintenance costs.   

 QoQ, turnover was lower by 3% due to lower revenue from Data (-6%) and other telco related services (-19%) but this was partially cushioned by the increase in the Voice (+3%) and Internet (+4%) divisions. Despite the moderate drop in revenue, the core NP, however, fell 58% due mainly to the absence of deferred tax income. 

 Unifi subscribers grew by 34% QoQ to 316k in end-1Q12 with a blended ARPU of RM182 (-RM2 QoQ). To date, Unifi’s subscribers have reached 365k on the back of 1.22m premises covered in 81 exchange areas. This translates into a take-up rate of 30%. Streamyx subscribership, on the other hand, dropped by 1.7% to 1.66m with a slightly higher ARPU of RM79 (+RM1 QoQ).      

Outlook   No change in its FY12 headline KPIs target (aiming 5.0% revenue growth and 32% in its EBITDA margin).

Change to Forecasts
 We have raised FY12-FY14E core NP by 6%-8% to RM722m-RM849m after lowering 1) the direct cost (from 19.5% to 18.5% as a % of sales) and 2) the effective tax rate (from 23% to 15%).

Rating  Maintain OUTPERFORM

Valuation    In tandem with the earnings upgrade, we have raised our TP to RM5.65 (from RM5.52 previously) based on a higher FY12 targeted EV/forward EBITDA of 7.2x (+2 SD) from 7.0x previously.   

Risks   A potential slowdown in broadband subscribers  
 Persisting margin pressure.  

Source: Kenanga

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