Friday, 23 November 2012

UOA Development - Above expectations


Period   3Q12 / 9M12 

Actual vs. Expectations    9M12 core earnings** of RM230m is above expectations, making 86% of street’s and 85% of ours. 9M12 sales hit a record high of RM1.24b (+46% YoY), largely due to Horizon Offices en bloc sales (3 blocks), Le Yuen, Vertical Office, Kencana Square and One@Bukit Ceylon.

Dividends    None, as expected. 

Key Results Highlights    YoY, 9M12 core earnings** was up 19% on higher billings and sales from ongoing projects. Property pretax margins did slide by 4.5ppt to 39% as new projects with heavy infrastructure (e.g. Kencana Square) has commenced; this was anticipated.  

QoQ, 3Q12 core earnings** rose 51% to RM111m as the group completed sales of 2 blocks of Horizon Office to LTH for RM204m. As a result, the group’s cash  pile grew by 148% to RM340m and its net cash positioned improved further to 0.15x. 

Outlook    Key launches for the next 12-18 months amount to RM3.1b; Kencana Square@Glenmarie (refer below), Scenaria/KiaraIV, Desa III, Desa II Phase 1 (Commercial), Desa Green and Kerinchi SoHo. 4Q12 will see SPA sales from Desa Green (1st two blocks almost fully booked) and Scenaria (preview this weekend). 

Change to Forecasts     Raise FY12E core earnings by 7% but lower FY13E by 6%. We are bringing forward some of the project recognitions to FY12E due to quicker than expected construction. Unbilled sales of RM0.8b provide 1 year visibility. 

Potential earnings upgrade if there are more en bloc sales.

Rating  Maintain OUTPERFORM
Investors’ need for defensive havens will keep this stock on the radar given FY12-13E net yields of  7.3%-6.2%  which  is  higher  than  sizeable  MREIT dividends yields of 4.5%-5.5%. 

Valuation   Maintain TP of RM2.30 based on 34% discount to our FD SoP RNAV of RM3.43. TP still implies compelling FY12-13E yields of 5.5%-4.6%. 

Risks  Sector risks, including negative policies and disappointing dividends. 

Source: Kenanga 

No comments:

Post a Comment