Period 3Q12 /
9M12
Actual vs. Expectations
The 9M12 net profit of RM151.2m came in
above expectations, making up 85% and 83% of ours and the street’s FY12 full
year estimates of RM177.4m and RM182.7m respectively.
Dividends No
dividend was declared as expected.
Key Results Highlights
YoY, it recorded improved sales of RM1,248.3m,
which were up by 8.1% due to its successful marketing and campaign for two
major events namely CNY 2012 and EURO 2012. A positive growth was also seen in
its premium beer segment, which saw its net profit rising by 17.4% to RM151.2m.
QoQ, the company’s 3Q12 net profit of RM61.1m improved
by 68% on the back of a 7.2% increase in revenue. The strong earnings growth
was attributable to the improvement of its operating margin from 12.6% to
19.4%. Geographically, its Malaysia and Singapore’s businesses expanded by 6.1ppt
and 7ppt to 17.5% and 23.6% respectively. This was largely due to the better
pricing and lower production cost at its premium beer segment.
Carlsberg has also started to locally brew two of its premium
brands, i.e. Asahi and Kronenbourg starting from this year given the positive
demands for the two beers.
Outlook Moving
forward, with CARLSBG’s strong presence in the premium beer market, we believe
that CARLSBG will be able to deliver another strong set of earnings in its
coming quarters, supported by the upcoming festive seasons, i.e. Christmas and
CNY.
Change to Forecasts We
have tweaked our FY12E and FY13E earnings forecasts higher by 7.8% and 5.6%,
respectively, as we had lowered our import duty assumptions.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM.
Valuation We have revised our Target Price higher to RM14.22
from RM14.10, which is in-line with our earnings upgrade. Our TP is derived
from a DCF valuation model with a WACC of 8.6% and terminal growth of 1.5%,
which also implies PER of 22.9x-20.8x on its FY12E-FY13E earnings.
Risks A
higher than expected excise duty hike, input cost and decline in its market
share.
Source: Kenanga
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