Wednesday 28 November 2012

Time dotCom - Above Expectations


Time  dotCom’s (TDC)  9MFY12  core  earnings  were  slightly  above  our/consensus estimates by 3%/5% respectively. Its 9M core earnings surged 49% y-o-y due to: i) contributions  from  its  recently  acquired  companies,  ii)  higher  IRU  sales,  and  iii) bumper  dividends  from  DiGi.  To  our  surprise,  its  EBITDA  margin  also  improved, ticking  up  210bps  y-o-y.  Overall,  we  are  impressed  with  its  YTD  numbers,  and expect more stellar results in 4Q given that DiGi declared a 12 sen interim/special dividend  in  3Q.  Maintain  BUY,  although  our  FV  and  financial  forecasts are  under review, pending the company’s conference call later today.  
 
Slightly  above  expectations.  TDC’s  9MFY12  core  earnings  were  slightly  above expectations, making up 78%/79% of our/consensus full-year estimates. The group’s 9M revenue grew by a commendable 29% y-o-y, while its core bottom-line surged 49% y-o-y.  The  strong financial  performance  was  mainly  attributed  to:  i)  contributions  from  its recently  acquired  companies, ii)  increased  IRU (Indefeasible  Rights  of  Use)  sales,  and iii) bumper dividends obtained from DiGi for the past three quarters. Meanwhile, its  9M EBITDA margin expanded 210bps y-o-y but 3Q’s core earnings contracted 3% q-o-q on higher  depreciation  and  financing  expenses.  Notably,  the  3Q  EBITDA  margin  slipped 230bps, coming off a high base in 2Q (lower IRU sales). Other takeaways were:
  •   The  wholesale  segment  posted  3Q/9M  revenue  growth  of  42%/28%  y-o-y,  afterincorporating five-month financial contribution from Global Transit Entities.
  •   The  3Q/9M  top-line  of  its  enterprise  segment  surged  48%/31%  y-o-y  afterassimilating AIMS Group into the division.
  •   The consumer & SME segment’s 3Q/9M revenue climbed 15%/18% y-o-y.

Maintain  BUY.  Forecasts  and  FV  under  review.  Overall,  we  are  pleased  with  the company’s 9M financial performance and remain optimistic on  its  outlook.  We  expect more  robust  results  for  4Q  as  DiGi  declared  a  12  sen  interim/special  dividend  in  3Q, which  will  translate  into  a  dividend  income  of  RM33m.  With  that,  we  are  retaining  our BUY  recommendation  but  keeping  our  forecasts  and  FV  under  review,  pending  the company’s conference call later today.
Source: OSK

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