Friday 30 November 2012

Genting Malaysia - 3Q12 core earnings above expectations


Period    3Q12

Actual vs. Expectations  The 3Q12 core profit of RM418.3m beat our estimate with the 9M12 core profit to date of RM1.23b accounting for 81% of our FY12 fullyear estimate and 77% that of the market consensus estimate.

 The variance between the actual number and our forecast is due chiefly to the lower than expected taxation charge (lower by RM51.9m or 36% QoQ). Its casino earnings meanwhile were fairly in line. 

Dividends   No dividend was declared as expected 

Key Results Highlights     The 3Q12 reported net profit plunged 62% QoQ to RM190.3m due mainly to a sum of RM178.9m in impairment losses. (RM87.5m for Omni Center in Miami, RM64.5m for certain provincial casinos in UK and RM26.9m for a concession agreement in Egypt) 

 The Malaysian casino operation reported 3Q12 adjusted EBITDA, which dipped 6% QoQ despite a flattish top line due to a lower hold percentage at the VIP market. YoY, the revenue rose slightly by 1% while the adjusted EBITDA was flat on a weaker luck factor.

 After an impressive 2Q12 numbers, UK casinos turned into a loss at the adjusted EBITDA level of RM13.8m as the revenue contracted 39% QoQ due to a lower business volume and poorer luck factor at its London casinos. There was a higher sum of bad debts written off in the 3Q12 as well. YoY, the revenue fell 14%.      

 The results from the USA operations remained strong in 3Q12, with the adjusted EBITDA rising 1% QoQ, although the revenue slid 1% as net wins rose 4%. A YoY comparison is not meaningful as the racino was launched only in Oct 2011.

Outlook   4Q is a seasonally strong quarter due to the yearend holiday season. Yield management initiative and new hotel rooms at Genting Highlands should help to improve earnings while the RWNYC numbers are sustainable. However, the UK operation could see continued tough times due to its VIP-centric nature.

Change to Forecasts   We have raised our FY12-FY14 EPS by 2%-5% as we revised our effective tax rate assumption to 23% in FY12 from 26%, and to 25% for both FY13-FY14 from 26% previously.
  
Rating  MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM

Valuation    Our price target is now RM4.19/SOP share, upgraded slightly from RM4.18/SOP share.  

Risks   Unfavourable luck factor.

Source: Kenanga

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