Tuesday, 27 November 2012

UMW Holdings: Driving Toward Brighter Days


We came away from UMW’s briefing yesterday optimistic on the outlook for all its divisions. The earnings turnaround at its O&G unit looks sustainable while the loss-making M&E unit may improve, bolstered by higher utilization at its India and China plants. We maintain our earnings forecasts after a 5-6% upgrade yesterday as well as our BUY call and RM12.45 FV based on sum-of-parts. The stock, which offers an attractive net dividend yield of 4%-6% for FY12-FY14, is trading at 9.5x FY13 earnings vs its long term average of 11x and peer average of 10x.
Auto: Higher localization and cost cuts. Despite stiff competition in the B segment, notably from the recently-launched Nissan Almera, UMW is confident that it can defend market share as well as mitigate any downside given the high resale value of the Vios and its established brand. Group promotions have been aggressively (such as the current 30th year anniversary promotion ending this year) boosting sales while cost cutting efforts have led to better operating margins. It is targeting for the localization of content – currently averaging 40% - to rise to 50% in the next three years. Meanwhile, Perodua’s sales distribution channels are penetrating the local universities and reaching Felda settlers via its special scheme. Like UMW, Perodua’s cost cuts and improved sales mix due to higher Myvi contribution significantly boosted profits. In the 2013 pipeline at UMW are the all-new Altis and Vios, both of which are entering their renewal cycles. We gather that while the NAP is still shrouded in uncertainty, industry players think the new guidelines would be announced progressively rather than at one go.  
Oil and Gas: Bullish; turnaround on track.
i)    The restructuring of UMW’s O&G business is in progress. The group wants to focus on the upstream segment covering drilling operations and oilfield services as its core business, and possibly dispose of its non-profitable non-core business as well as those that are taking longer than expected to turn around. The non-core assets are pipe manufacturing, fabrication and oilfield products. Meanwhile, the privatization of WSP is still under review and likely to be finalized next year.
ii)    Naga 1 to start next month. Management is currently in talks with several parties on a charter for the Naga 4, due to be delivered in Feb 2013, and is confident of securing the contract at a higher charter rate than the Naga 3. Note that eight of Malaysia’s drilling contracts with foreign rig players are due to expire in 2013. With UMW being the only local owner that operates its own rig, it is highly likely to bag the contract. 
iii)   Management is confident of expanding its O&G revenue next year driven by higher charter rates and with the full year contribution of Naga 1. The stabilizing oil price has spurred oil field developments in the Asean region, including Myanmar.
iv)    The drilling academy UMW set up jointly with Petronas will see its first batch of trainees graduating in January 2013 before undergoing practical training at UMW’s oil rigs. This relationship with Petronas will solidify the support for UMW in expanding its rig operations moving forward.
v)     Naga 1’s charter rate will remain unchanged until 2016. Its dry-docking in 2Q and 3Q FY12 for refurbishment has extended its life by 16 years. The USD100m capex incurred in the refurbishment is shared between UMW and JDC, the owners of Naga 1.
vi)     While the outlook looks bright for drilling operations, management said it did not exercise its purchase option for the Naga 5 due to the rig’s lower capacity specifications. A key requirement of most upstream players is the manpower it is able to accommodate, which in this case is 150 people, and the Naga 5 did not meet the criteria, being able to accommodate only 120 people. 
Manufacturing and Engineering: Higher utilization key to operation turnaround.
i)       The manufacturing side saw improved performance, thanks to higher plant utilization at the India and China plants. Improved utilization at the China oil lubricant plant was boosted by an expanding distributorship.
ii)       KYB, which has been with UMW for 20 years, continued to grow, moving on to exporting to other countries to cater for the replacement market.
iii)       UMW’s Pennzoil, which is distributed by Shell in Malaysia is gaining market acceptance.
iv)       Management is confident in booking sizeable earnings for 4Q, guiding that it could hit RM4.9m in PBT, similar to that achieved in 1QFY11.
FYE Dec (RM’m)
FY10
FY11
FY12f
FY13f
FY14f
Revenue
12,820.2
13,535.8
15,779.5
17,532.0
18,660.2
Core Net Profit
576.5
836.7
1,083.2
1,242.9
1,368.1
% chg y-o-y
46.9
45.1
29.5
14.7
10.1
Consensus


939.0
1,044.0
1,118.0
EPS
50.5
71.7
92.9
106.6
117.3
DPS
30.0
31.0
46.4
53.3
58.6
Dividend yield (%)
3.0
3.1
4.6
5.3
5.8
ROE (%)
13.1
11.8
22.4
22.5
21.8
ROA (%)
5.3
4.8
9.7
10.4
10.7
PER (x)
20.0
14.1
10.9
9.5
8.6
BV/share
3.3
3.5
4.0
4.6
5.3
P/BV (x)
3.1
2.9
2.5
2.2
1.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.5
6.9
5.5
4.8
4.2
Equipment: ETP stokes construction boom. UMW continued to maintain its dominant 31% and 50% share in the heavy equipment and forklift segments respectively, spurred by Myanmar’s growing jade mining sector and Malaysia’s vibrant construction sector. It recently ventured into the leasing market to expand its revenue base. UMW’s prospects moving forward remain promising as its dominance in the jade mining sector in Myanmar will spill over to that country’s construction industry. Meanwhile, heightening construction activities in Malaysia will be driven by the Mass Rapid Transit railway project and other government-driven Economic Transformation Programmes.
Foreign shareholding on the rise. Currentlytheforeign shareholding in UMW is 25.44% vs 9% in October 2010. For some perspective, UMW attracted the third highest number of requests for meetings during our Invest Malaysia Hong Kong conference (jointly organized with Bursa Malaysia) last month.
RM1bn profit mark achievable; consensus numbers lags earnings pace. Our earnings forecasts for FY12-FY14 are 15% to 22% higher than consensus’ conservative estimates. We expect UMW to chalk up higher earnings at all its division in 4QFY12 although it is likely that the auto segment may potentially end up flat or slightly below estimates. While consensus is only projecting for UMW to achieve RM1bn in net profit for FY13, we are optimistic that this figure could be achieved by FY12 in view of the stronger 4Q y-o-y and q-o-q. We are projecting for earnings growth of 29.5%/14.7% and 10% for FY12/FY13 and FY14 respectively.
Getting it right. Since our timely upgrade on UMW in February, the stock has shot up 44% YTD, and is possibly one of the top performers on the FBM KLCI. Our alternate BUY, SELL and BUY calls since August 2010 have produced an absolute return of 61%, excluding dividends. We remain bullish on UMW, which is our top auto pick. Maintain earnings forecasts following a 5%-6% lift yesterday, as well as our RM12.45 FV, based on sum-of-parts. Maintain BUY. The stock offers an attractive net dividend yield of 4%-6% for FY12-FY14 and is trading at 9.5x FY13 earnings vs its long term average of 11-12x and its peer average of 10x.
 
3QFY11
2QFY12
3QFY12
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
9MFY12
9MFY11

Y-o-Y
Comments
UMW vehicle sales
         
Toyota
23230
29027
24851
-14%
7%
64918
76418
18%
 
Lexus
564
412
374
-9%
-34%
996
1138
14%
 
UMW vehicles
23794
29439
25225
-14%
6%
67018
77556
16%
Driven new model by launches
Perodua
47719
48180
46488
-4%
-3%
127186
139411
10%
Perodua deliveries to dealers and export market combined expanded 45.9% y-o-y and 2.2% q-o-q. YTD, it is up 15.2% y-o-y
Total Sales
71513
77619
71713
-8%
0%
194204
216967
12%
 
          
Revenue
         
 - Automotive
2616.1
3036.7
2934.9
-3%
12%
7282.6
8468.9
16%
 
 - Equipment
631.4
560.2
527.7
-6%
-16%
1541.6
1702.7
10%
More orders due to construction activities and from Myanmar, although the iron ore mining and plantation sectors slowed down
 - Oil and Gas
295.1
371.9
337.2
-9%
14%
775.1
1139.9
47%
Higher revenue contributions from new rigs and higher charter rates although Naga 1 contributed no revenue due to dry docking
 - Manufacturing
163.7
182.0
181.6
0%
11%
498.5
525.0
5%
Improved utilisation of plants
 - Others
21.3
27.7
19.5
-30%
-9%
65.0
67.8
4%
 
 - Sub-Total
3727.6
4178.5
4000.9
-4%
7%
10162.9
11904.3
17%
 
 - Elimination
-36.2
-38.6
-36.6
-5%
1%
-83.8
-104.4
24%
 
 - Consolidated Total
3691.4
4139.8
3964.3
-4%
7%
10079.1
11799.9
17%
 
          
EBITDA
562.0
547.8
588.9
7%
5%
1371.4
1596.2
16%
Higher margins from autos and equipment and O&G seen
Depreciation
-68.4
-61.9
-72.3
17%
6%
-203.9
-222.4
9%
 
EBIT
493.6
485.9
516.7
6%
5%
1167.5
1373.8
18%
 
Profit Before Associates
495.6
479.3
513.0
7%
4%
1159.3
1354.4
17%
 
Associates
         
 - Automotive
44.3
40.5
62.6
54%
41%
110.6
147.6
33%
Driven by Perodua’s numbers
 - Oil and Gas
-13.1
-0.7
-2.3
215%
-83%
-27.2
-14.4
-47%
Associate losses narrowed y-o-y and YTD
 - Others
-10.1
-6.7
-6.7
0%
-34%
-5.5
-10.0
82%
 
Total Associate
21.1
33.1
53.7
62%
155%
77.8
123.2
58%
 
          
EI
-41.2
-38.7
27.0
-170%
-166%
-124.7
3.7
-103%
EI on writebacks, impairments and forex gain
PBT
391.9
510.2
597.6
17%
52%
1015.2
1541.1
52%
 
Tax
-113.8
-132.1
-122.5
-7%
8%
-282.7
-345.6
22%
 
MI
-131.2
-153.9
-175.9
14%
34%
-330.8
-452.2
37%
 
PATAMI
146.9
224.2
299.1
33%
104%
401.7
743.4
85%
 
 - Automotive
196.7
214.8
230.7
7%
17%
478.4
616.9
29%
 
 - Equipment
19.7
41.5
41.0
-1%
108%
73.1
124.8
71%
 
 - Oil and Gas
-16.9
-1.0
19.4
-2033%
-215%
-35.1
42.5
-221%
 
 - Manufacturing
-6.8
-0.8
-4.2
404%
-38%
-5.8
-5.3
-9%
 
 - Others
-23.6
-30.2
12.3
-141%
-152%
-58.3
-35.5
-39%
 
          
Core PATAMI
188.1
263.0
272.1
3%
45%
526.4
739.7
41%
9M trumped consensus by 11% when annualized, putting UMW on track to hit our earnings forecast
          
EBITDA Margin
15.2%
13.2%
14.9%
2%
-0.4%
13.6%
13.5%
0%
 
EBIT Margin
13.4%
11.7%
13.0%
1%
-0.3%
11.6%
11.6%
0%
 
PBT Margin
10.6%
12.3%
15.1%
3%
4.5%
10.1%
13.1%
3%
 
Core PATAMI Margin
5.1%
6.4%
6.9%
1%
1.8%
5.2%
6.3%
1%
 
          
Core EPS
16.1
22.5
23.3
3%
44%
45.2
63.3
40%
 
DPS
13.5
10.0
15.0
50%
11%
23.5
25.0
6%
 
NTA Per Share
3.5
3.8
3.9
4%
12%
3.5
3.9
12%
 
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
107.1
-208.0
-495.5
138%
-563%
107.1
-495.5
-563%
 
 Figure 1: Sum-of-parts valuation for UMW
 
FY11
FY12f
FY13f
Earnings Multiplier (x)
Equity Value
% of Total FV

PATAMI (RM'm)







 - Automotive
692.5
860.1
931.3
12
11,175.9
76.9%

 - Equipment
27.6
162.9
189.4
9
1705.0
11.7%

 - Manu. And Eng
1.6
-4.9
15.8
9
142.5
1.0%

 - Oil and Gas
-216.4
67.0
108.9
14
1524.4
10.5%

 - Others
-3.2
-1.9
-2.6
9
-23.1
-0.2%

Total PATAMI
502.1
1083.2
1242.9




Total Core PATAMI
836.7
1083.2
1242.9
   

Earnings growth
45%
29%
15%
   

       

   
Total Equity Value (RM'm)
14,525
 
   
Number of Shares (m)
1,166
 
   
Fair Value Per Share
12.45
 
   
Current Share Price
10.1
 
   
Implied PE multiple on FY13 earnings
11.7
 
   
% upside/ (downside)
23.3
 
   
Add: Dividend Yield
4.7
 
   
Net upside / (downside)
28.0
 
EARNINGS FORECAST
FYE Dec (RMm)
FY10
FY11
FY12f
FY13f
FY14f












Key Assumptions
Toyota Volume
91,990
88,662
101,056
109,470
112,032
Perodua Volume
188,642
179,989
190,000
193,800
197,676






Income Statement
Revenue





 - Automotive
9,935.8
9,692.7
11,114.2
12,193.7
12,706.3
 - Equipment
1,570.8
2,057.7
2,469.2
2,814.9
3,209.0
 - Manu. And Eng
640.9
639.0
702.9
773.2
850.5
 - Oil and Gas
633.3
1,103.2
1,450.1
1,707.1
1,851.3
 - Others
39.4
43.2
43.2
43.2
43.2
Total Revenue
12,820.2
13,535.8
15,779.5
17,532.0
18,660.2
EBITDA
1,540.8
1,905.4
2,396.4
2,698.6
2,888.2
Depreciation
-281.6
-297.6
-328.5
-367.8
-393.9
EBIT
1,259.2
1,607.8
2,067.8
2,330.7
2,494.2
Interest Exp
-61.1
-90.5
-87.5
-71.9
-61.7
Interest Inc
50.8
77.9
81.1
71.4
73.6
Associate
113.8
120.9
179.3
191.6
216.6
EI
-49.6
-334.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
PBT
1,313.2
1,381.5
2,240.8
2,521.8
2,722.7
Tax
-340.4
-412.0
-495.9
-551.9
-596.0
PAT
972.8
969.5
1,744.9
1,970.0
2,126.7
MI
-445.9
-467.5
-661.8
-727.1
-758.6
PATAMI
526.9
502.1
1,083.2
1,242.9
1,368.1
Core PATAMI
526.9
502.1
1,083.2
1,242.9
1,368.1






Balance Sheet





PPE
2,852.3
3,077.2
3,567.2
4,019.6
3,945.1
Intangible
258.5
199.4
213.6
161.6
75.2
Associate
1,453.1
1,424.4
1,424.4
1,424.4
1,424.4
Others
517.9
490.7
490.7
490.7
490.7
LT Asset
5,081.8
5,191.7
5,695.8
6,096.3
5,935.3






Inventories
1,396.1
1,518.9
1,770.7
1,967.3
2,093.9
Receivables
1,109.2
1,209.7
1,410.2
1,566.9
1,667.7
Investment
230.0
391.3
391.3
391.3
391.3
Others
11.7
5.4
10.0
10.0
10.0
Cash
2,195.1
2,219.4
1,863.1
1,932.5
2,673.5
ST Asset
4,942.1
5,344.7
5,445.2
5,867.9
6,836.3
Total Assets
10,023.8
10,541.0
11,141.0
11,964.2
12,771.6






Share capital
576.7
584.1
584.1
584.1
584.1
Share premium
716.7
794.5
794.5
794.5
794.5
Capital reserve
7.4
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
Others
-26.3
-42.6
-42.6
-42.6
-42.6
Retained profits
2,752.6
2,906.8
3,503.6
4,188.5
4,942.4
MI
1,239.9
1,328.9
1,456.7
1,590.7
1,733.9
Equity
5,267.0
5,578.1
6,302.7
7,121.6
8,018.6






LT Borrowings
1,858.2
1,743.3
1,453.2
1,200.0
1,000.0
Others
113.2
123.0
123.0
123.0
123.0
LT Liabilities
1,971.4
1,866.3
1,576.2
1,323.0
1,123.0






ST Borrowings
825.2
850.7
680.0
630.0
580.0
Payables
1,610.3
1,924.3
2,243.2
2,492.4
2,652.8
Others
349.9
321.6
338.9
397.2
397.2
ST Liabilities
2,785.4
3,096.6
3,262.1
3,519.5
3,629.9
Total Liabilities
4,756.8
4,962.9
4,838.3
4,842.6
4,753.0
Equity and Liabilities
10,023.8
10,541.0
11,141.0
11,964.2
12,771.6
FYE Dec (RMm)
FY10
FY11
FY12f
FY13f
FY14f












Cash Flow





CFO
1,001.8
1,307.8
1,863.6
2,262.6
2,486.6






Acquisitions
-36.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Net Capex (after disposal)
-791.4
-673.7
-800.0
-800.0
-300.0
Interest received
48.6
77.9
81.2
70.3
72.4
Dividends received
61.6
77.5
69.6
73.5
71.5
CFI
-717.3
-518.4
-649.3
-656.1
-156.0






Net change in borrowings
623.3
-141.5
-631.2
-447.5
-355.7
Share proceeds
165.5
81.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
Dividends
-614.7
-733.4
-924.0
-1,093.6
-1,256.4
CFF
174.1
-793.0
-1,555.2
-1,541.1
-1,612.2






Net increase in cash
458.6
-3.6
-340.8
65.3
718.4
Beginning Cash
1,699.0
2,130.8
2,145.6
1,804.8
1,870.1
Others
-26.9
18.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
Ending Cash
2,130.8
2,145.6
1,804.8
1,870.1
2,588.5






FCF to Firm
345.9
880.1
1,302.1
1,678.6
2,392.5
FCF to Equity
924.0
671.7
606.2
1,177.9
1,991.1






Margin (%)





EBITDA
12.0
14.1
15.2
15.4
15.5
EBIT
9.8
11.9
13.1
13.3
13.4
PBT
10.2
10.2
14.2
14.4
14.6
PATAMI
4.1
3.7
6.9
7.1
7.3
Core PATAMI
4.5
6.2
6.9
7.1
7.3






Growth (% chg y-o-y)
Toyota Volume
12.1
-3.6
14.0
8.3
2.3
Perodua Volume
13.1
-4.6
5.6
2.0
2.0
Revenue
19.6
5.6
16.6
11.1
6.4
EBITDA
50.5
23.7
25.8
12.6
7.0
EBIT
59.8
27.7
28.6
12.7
7.0
Associate
61.1
6.2
48.4
6.8
13.0
PBT
55.1
5.2
62.2
12.5
8.0
Core PATAMI
46.9
45.1
29.5
14.7
10.1






Key Ratios





ROE (%)
13.1
11.8
22.4
22.5
21.8
ROA (%)
5.3
4.8
9.7
10.4
10.7
(Net Debt) / Net Cash
-126.0
71.4
175.9
548.5
1,539.5
Net Gearing/ Net Cash
2.4
Net Cash
Net Cash
Net Cash
Net Cash
Current Ratio
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
Interest Coverage
20.6
17.8
23.6
32.4
40.4






Per share Data





Core EPS
50.5
71.7
92.9
106.6
117.3
DPS
30.0
31.0
46.4
53.3
58.6
Sales/Share (RM)
11.2
11.6
13.5
15.0
16.0
BV/share (RM)
4.6
4.8
5.4
6.1
6.9
NTA/Share (RM)
3.3
3.5
4.0
4.6
5.3






Valuation





Core P/E
20.0
14.1
10.9
9.5
8.6
Dividend Yield
3.0
3.1
4.6
5.3
5.8
P/Sales
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
P/BV
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
P/NTA
3.1
2.9
2.5
2.2
1.9
EV/EBITDA
8.5
6.9
5.5
4.8
4.2

Source: OSK

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