Period 3Q12 /
9M12
Actual vs. Expectations
The 9M12 net profit of RM68.1m was within our expectations, making up 73% of
our FY12 net profit estimate (RM93.2m) and 76% of the consensus’ net profit
estimate (RM89.8m).
Dividends No
dividend was declared.
Key Results Highlights
QoQ, the 3Q12 net profit (RM21.4m)
was down by 8.4% mainly due to the spike in the tax expense (+>100%) on
account of taxes for vessels under 51%-owned Intan Offshore. This is within our
expectations given that the vessels would only be transferred to the Labuan tax
structure by year-end. Besides that, there were also ESOS charges that resulted
in a marginal increase (6.8%) in admin expenses.
YoY, the significant
jump in both the revenue (+161.1%) and pretax profit (+198.4%) was mainly due
to new earnings from the Offshore Support Vessel (OSVs) business under
51%-owned Intan Offshore, and the Rubicone (Mobile Offshore Production Unit,
“MOPU”).
Outlook The
company should see relatively stable net earnings for the next two years given
the bare-boat nature of its current contracts.
An additional
catalyst to FY13 earnings will be if Perisai takes an equity stake in Lewek
Arunothai, an FPSO that has secured a Letter of Award (LOA) for a contract in
the North Malay Basin. Currently, Perisai is only acting as an agent for EOC
Ltd (owner of the FPSO) and hence will only be earning minimal fees on the
project.
FY14 net profit
growth will be driven by the commencement of Perisai’s jack-up rig, which is currently
under construction in PPL Shipyard Pte Ltd.
Change to Forecasts No changes to our forecasts at this
juncture.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation Our
target price of RM1.48 is based on a targeted PER of 13x on CY13 EPS of 11.4
sen (which is in line with its 5-year historical forward PER of 13.3x).
Risks 1)
a downturn in the oil and gas sector that will delay contract flows;
2) failure to
replenish contracts, which will significantly affect its earnings growth;
and
3) the failure to
raise funding for asset expansion purposes.
Source: Kenanga
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