- This is in-line, covering 79%-80% of our and the street’s
full-year estimates. However, on a QoQ basis, earnings slipped by 8% due to
slower progress billings compared to the preceding quarter.
- Earnings were driven by progress billings from Kinrara
Residence, Garden Residence, Clover @ Garden Residence and Garden Plaza in
Cyberjaya, M-Suites and M City in Ampang, and M Residence in Rawang, among
others.
- That aside, near- to mid-term earnings visibility is
clearer – secured by strong current unbilled
sales (as at end September 2012) of about RM3bil or slightly more than double
its booked FY11 property turnover.
- Mah Sing is also just RM300mil (new sales of RM2.2bil as
at mid-November) shy of achieving its new sales target of RM2.5bil for 2012
vis-a-vis new sales of RM1.3bil in June. While sales were generally strong, the
huge spike was aided by an en-bloc sale. This enhances our strong belief in Mah
Sing’s deal-making capabilities.
- Going forward, the group has set an ambitious new sales
target of at least RM3bil for 2013. We believe this is within reach given the
exciting launches in the pipeline and this is further boosted by a higher GDV
for Southville City at RM3.63bil (vs. RM2.15bil previously). Similarly, Sutera
Avenue’s GDV has increased to RM500mil (from RM360mil) following some
reconfiguration in development plans. This also implies that Mah Sing has
exceeded its 2012 GDV replenishment target of RM5bil by about RM900mil.
- We reaffirm our BUY recommendation on Mah Sing Group (Mah
Sing) with our fair value kept at RM3.60/share, assigning a 25% discount to our
FD estimated NAV of RM4.80/share. Mah Sing continues to trade at an attractive
discount of 53% to its FD NAV estimate while supported by an attractive FY13F
PE of 8x.
Source: AmeSecurities
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