Period 3Q12 / 9M12
Actual vs. Expectations
9M12 core net profit of RM280m
was slightly above street but broadly in-line with our expectations, making up
82% of street and 80% of our forecasts.
Dividends Interim dividend of 4.0sen (tax exempt),
implying 9M12 NDPS of 12.0sen (0% YoY)
or within estimated FY12E NDPS of 16.0sen (2.9% yield).
Key Results Highlights
YoY, 9M12 core earnings grew 35%
on the back of maiden M3P Office and full M3P Retail contributions, supported
by stable EBITDA margins of 76% (+1ppt).
QoQ, 3Q12 core
earnings of RM95m rose 3%. Albeit a slight reduction in revenue (-2% due to lower
MO contributions), Suria’s PBT margin improved by 4ppt to 75.2% whilst
management services PBT improved by 18% to RM9.3m. 3Q12 reported net profit
imputes RM1.4b fair value gains, largely driven by Suria and M3P.
Outlook KLCC has proposed to; 1) REIT 3 office
assets, namely Petronas Twin Towers, Menara ExxonMobil and Menara 3 PETRONAS
(63% of portfolio); 2) formation of a ‘stapled group’ which features KLCC REIT
and KLCC. Rationale is to unlock the value of KLCC while minimizing holding
company discounts and liquidity splits of related entities.
We view the exercise positively, although we were hoping for
all assets to be REIT-ed. In a nutshell, it is still KLCC with better asset realization,
tax structure and dividend payouts (refer overleaf for story/details).
Change to Forecasts No
changes to FY12-13E
core earnings as we have
already imputed for M3P contributions and imputed for PTT’s long-term lease
renewals.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation Lowering TP to RM5.90 (from RM6.87), based
on KLCC Stapled structure, 90% payout, implying FY13E NDPS of 35.4sen and FY13E
target net yield of 6.0%. Rationale for higher target yields vs. M-REIT
4.5%-5.0% is due to KLCC Stapled being a ‘quasi’ REIT and will unlikely be able
to enjoy premium to NAV valuations until it has REIT-ed all its assets. At our
TP, the stock will be an 18% discount to KLCC’s current FD SoP RNAV of RM7.20.
Risks Risks lies if the proposed exercised is
aborted and MO occupancy declining.
Source: Kenanga
No comments:
Post a Comment