Century Software - Falling Short of Expectations

Censof’s 9MFY12 earnings fell short of expectations, making up only 46%/54% ofour/consensus’  full-year  estimates.  Its  cumulative  9MFY12  revenue  and  earningsslipped 18%  and  27%  y-o-y  to  RM27.1m/RM4.9m  respectively.  We  are  cutting  ourFY12  earnings  forecasts  by  20%  to  realign  our  estimates  to  incorporate  thecompany’s weak  nine-month  financial  performance.  However, we  are  leaving  ourFY13  forecasts  unchanged  on  the  confidence  that  the  numbers  are  achievable.Maintain NEUTRAL, with FV unchanged at RM0.34, based on a 9x FY13 PE.
 
Missing  estimates.  Censof’s 9MFY12 earnings missed  expectations,  making  up  only 46%  and  54%  of  our  and  consensus’  full-year  estimates.  The company’s cumulative 9MFY12  revenue  and  earnings  slipped  18%  and  27%  y-o-y  to  RM27.1m  and  RM4.9m respectively.  However,  management  attributed  the  decline  mainly  to  the  rapid recognition  of  the  Outcome  Based  Budgeting  project  last  year.  Stripping  off  the  RM9m revenue  and  RM2m  net  profit  contributed  by  the  project,  Censof’s 9M  revenue  and earnings wouldhave gone up by 14% and 2% y-o-y.  

Management sees more upbeat 4Q. On a quarterly basis, the company’s 3Q net profit soared  60%  q-o-q  to  RM1.8m  owing  to  an  increase  in  recognition  of  higher-margin related projects. However, its top-line shrank 60% q-o-q. For 4Q, Censof expects to beef up  revenue  by  recognizing  more  projects  from  its  orderbook,  now  worth  RM65m.  We understand that management has also indentified RM150m worth of potential business to  replenish  orders.  Traditionally,  it  has  been  achieving  a  win  rate  of  20%-25%,  which translate  into  a  potential  replenishment  amounting  to  RM30m-RM38m.  Management  is also  targeting  to  match  its  FY11  net  profit  of  RM9.5m, suggesting  that  the  4Q  bottom-line will grow by 250% q-o-q, due to the low base in 3Q. 

Maintain  NEUTRAL,  FV  unchanged  at  RM0.34.  Despite  management’s  upbeat guidance,  we  are  trimming  our  FY12  earnings  forecast  by  20%  in  order  to  realign  our estimates  to  factor  in  the  weaker  9MFY12  financial  performance.  However,  we  are  not making  any  changes  to  our  FY13  forecast  as  we  reckon  it  would  be  achievable.  We maintain  our  NEUTRAL  recommendation  on  the  stock,  with  our  FV  unchanged  at RM0.34, based on a 9x FY13 PE.

Source: OSK