Thursday 21 March 2013

Banking - 2012 Financial Stability And Payment Systems Report Highlights


We are keeping our Overweight stance on the sector. Despite the further rise in household indebtedness, BNM appears comfortable with bank lending to households and is unlikely to introduce further tightening measures for now, in our view. The new Financial Services Act will further expand BNM’s reach to entities that it does not currently regulate and is potentially a game changer ahead, we believe.

Household indebtedness rose further to 80.5% of GDP in 2012, as compared to 75.8% in 2011. Nevertheless, BNM appeared comfortable with bank lending to households, as the bulk of the loans were for the purchase of assets. However, the non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) continued to enjoy rapid credit expansion, driven by the growth in personal loans. We believe the Financial Services Act could be a game changer ahead for the NBFIs that are currently outside the purview of BNM. The new legislation will come into effect mid-2013 and empowers BNM to impose regulations on entities that it currently does not regulate.

Residential property prices continue to rise but further measures unlikely for now. BNM believes the upward trend in residential property prices is mainly a reflection of supply-demand dynamics, rather than financial factors. Other contributing factors include demographic changes and rate of urbanisation. Measures to address the rising house prices include the Government’s efforts to increase the supply of affordable houses while pre-emptive measures introduced in 2010 appear to have helped moderate investment activities. For now, we do not expect BNM to introduce further measures on this front.

Maintain Overweight stance on sector. Our Overweight stance is unchanged. Our top picks for the sector are Maybank and Public Bank, while we advocate a “buy on weakness” strategy for CIMB, pending the general election.

Source: RHB

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