Tuesday, 8 January 2013

OIL & GAS (OVERWEIGHT) Sector News Flash: OSV Market Gets Off to A Good Start


THE BUZZ  

Perdana  Petroleum  (Perdana)  announced  to  Bursa  Malaysia  yesterday  that  its subsidiary  company,  Perdana  Nautika,  has  secured  a  letter  of  award  from  Petronas Carigali  for  the  supply  of  four  anchor  handling  tug  supply  vessels.  Separately,  Alam Maritim  (Alam)  announced  that  it  has  received  a  letter  of  intent  from  a  Malaysia-based international oilfield services provider, for the provision of one straight supply vessel.


OUR TAKE  

More  to  come.  We  remain  positive  on  the  prospects  of  the  offshore  supply  vessel (OSV)  market  for  2013  in  tandem  with  improving  charter  rates  (USD1.8-USD2.2  per bhp) and more long-term OSV contract tenders, driven by heightening activities in the oil &  gas  sector.  Catalysts  will  come  from  hook-up,  construction  and  commissioning (HUCC) jobs due to be awarded from the Pan Malaysia cluster in Malaysian shores.

Alam Maritim still a BUY. RM1.25FV stays. The contract, for a period of nine months, is  worth  about  RM8.1m,  with  an  optional  12-month  extension  for  a  top-up  value  of RM10.9m.  The  award  is  in  line  with  our  view  that  Alam’s OSV  business  is  on  track  for recovery.  However,  as  we  are  still  cautious  on  the company’s offshore  installation  and construction  (OIC)  business  due  to  the  dearth  of  contracts,  we  are  not  changing  our earnings forecast. Our FV is maintained at RM1.25, pegged to 12x FY13 EPS.

More long-term contracts to come? Perdana’s contract, which is for a primary period of  five  years  with  the  option  to  extend  for  another  year,  is  valued  at  about  RM430m. Based  on  the  size  and  duration  of  the  contracts  announced,  we  estimate  the  daily charter rate at USD2.0 per bhp, in line with the current market rate. We view the latest contract for Perdana positively as it is consistent with management’s target for 60%-70% of  contracts  to  be  on  long-term  charter  to  provide  earnings  certainty.  Should  its  major shareholder  Dayang  secure  jobs  in  its  Pan  Malaysia  bids,  we  see  further  upside  to Perdana’s share price as it would be able to charter out more of vessels under long term contracts in the next five years.

Lifting  FV  to  RM1.27  but  still  NEUTRAL  on  Perdana  Petroleum.  Although  Perdana has bagged a new contract, we make no changes to our FY13 earnings estimate as we had previously incorporated some vessel orderbook replenishment. That said, we revise upward our FV to RM1.27 as we now value Perdana at 13x FY13 EPS (previously 12x), in line with our valuation for Alam. The upgrade is premised on recent long term contract wins with decent charter rates.  

Maintain  OVERWEIGHT  on  the  O&G  sector.  Our  FV  for  Alam  implies  a  potential 61.3%  upside  from  current  level  while  our  FV  for  Perdana  implies  an  upside  of  8.5% from the last closing price. Our top picks for the oil and gas sector are Dialog (BUY, FV: RM3.45)  and  Dayang  (BUY,  FV:  RM2.90). We  also  like  SapuraKencana  as  we  expect more upside to our FV once the group completes the acquisition of Seadrill’s assets by the end of this month.
Source: OSK

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