Tuesday 22 January 2013

Sarawak Oil Palms - Strong Growth To Boost Value


19 fund managers and analysts  met Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP)’s management at the recent RHB OSK-DMG Asean HK Corporate Day in Singapore. Refining conditions in Sarawak  turned  positive  in  4Q2012  on  strong  CPO  output  and  favourable  refining margins.  We  see  more  downstream  investment  in  the  coming  years  as  refining capacity  remains  insufficient.  We  are  forecasting  for  earnings  to  rebound  by  36% this year following the industry-wide poor showing in 2012. Maintain BUY, with a FV of RM6.77.

2013  FFB  production  to  grow  >13%.  SOP’s FFB production rose 5.2% y-o-y  to  883k tonnes  in  2012.  Expectations  are  for  output  to  breach  the  1.0m-tonne  mark  this  year (implying  at  least  13.2%  growth)  as  production  normalises  following  a  weak  2012.  We believe this year’s earnings will expand by 36% y-o-y on the back of: i) stronger production, ii)  more  favourable  refining  margins,  and  iii)  cheaper  fertilizer  costs,  despite  potentially softer average CPO prices on a y-o-y basis.

Downstream  environment  brightens.  The  company’s  refinery  was  fully  utilized  in  Nov and  Dec  last  year  as  Sarawak’s  CPO  production  rebounded.  Refining  margins  also widened as refiners shifted to a  spot pricing for its CPO supply rather than the fixed price formula previously agreed upon with millers. Amid a seasonally strong CPO output and an environment of  tight  refining  capacity,  refining  margins in  Sarawak  improved substantially in 4Q2012.

More downstream investment on the cards. SOP may look into expanding downstream again over the next two to three years as its own CPO production may soon outpace the company’s refining  capacity.  Sarawak  state  is  currently  facing  a  mismatch  between  CPO production and refining capacity, whereby the existing refining capacity of 2.4m tonnes per year is unable to fully cater to the state’s annual CPO output of >2.9m tonnes.

One  of  our  best  sector  buy  ideas.  We  favour  SOP’s strong  growth  prospects,  solid management  and  attractive  valuations  (11.2x  FY13  PE  vs industry’s 15.0x).  Should  we benchmark  SOP  to  the  plantation industry’s average FY13 PE  of  15.0x,  its  current  share price  implies  an  average  CPO  price  of  RM2,100  per  tonne.  Maintain  BUY,  with  RM6.77 FV, based on 13.0x FY13 PE.
A MORE PROSPEROUS 2013
Refining  is  back  in  the  black.  Its  maiden  venture  downstream,  a  1,500  tonnes-per-day palm oil refinery situated in Bintulu, had 100% utilization in Nov-Dec 2012 following strong CPO production recovery in the state together with favourable refining margins. As a result of the sharp and rapid plunge in palm oil prices in 2H2012, many refiners have shifted to a new  pricing  formula  for  its  CPO  supply  purchases.  Fixed  CPO  selling  prices  previously agreed upon between refiners and millers are no longer valid; refiners are still agreeing to take  up  the  millers’ CPOs but only at a price  based  on  spot  CPO  prices,  not  at  the previously determined rate.

Better  margins.  Amid  a  season  of  high  production  and  an  environment  of  tightened capacity,  refining  margins  in  Sarawak  have  substantially  improved  in  4Q2012,  a  stark contrast  to  the  challenging  environment  seen  in  9M2012,  which  was  marked  by  with instances  of  negative  margins.  SOP  expects  refining  margins  to  remain  favourable  in 1Q2013,  although  refining  profits  from  2Q2013  onwards  would  likely  experience  some compression as a large bulk of Indonesia’s new refining capacity comes  on-stream.  This would likely lead to increased CPO prices and suppressed palm olein prices.
Sarawak’s  production–refining  capacity  mismatch.  Sarawak  has  five  refineries  with  a total capacity to process 2.4m tonnes of CPO annually. Production within the state topped 2.9m  tonnes  in  2012.  We  believe  CPO  production  growth  in  Sarawak  will  continue  to outpace  that  of  the  country  in  2013  due  to  its  relatively  late  commercial planting  initiative (hence, younger trees), exacerbating the mismatch in production and refining capacity.

More mills needed. Similar issues occur at the milling level as the state government looks to  prevent  the  milling  overcapacity  situation  seen  in  the  Peninsular  and  Sabah.  No independent millers are  thus allowed  in  Sarawak,  with  each  company  needing  to  operate at  least  5,000  ha  of  planted  area  before  being  given  a  license  to  construct  a  CPO  mill. While the mill would be sufficient to accommodate its own FFBs and some external crops, severe  underestimation  of  FFB  production  from  smallholders  within  the  state  (those  with less than 5,000 ha planted area) is causing shortages in milling capacity.
More  downstream  investment  in  the  cards.  SOP’s own CPO production is likely  to outpace its refining capacity within a few years’ time. Thus, plans are underway to expand its refinery capacity over the next two to three years on its existing 100-acre land in Bintulu to accommodate the firm’s growing production.  The  company  is  considering  to  double  its existing  refining  capacity  to  3,000  tonnes  per  day,  bringing  Sarawak’s  total  refining capacity to 2.8m tonnes per year (assuming other refineries maintain their capacity).

2013 FFB production to grow >13%. The company’s FFB production grew 5.2% y-o-y to 883,069  tonnes  in 2012,  slightly  ahead of  our  forecast  of  868,615  tonnes. SOP’s internal estimates forecast 2013 output to grow by at least 13.2% to breach the 1.0m-tonne mark. Our  expectations  are  for  production  to  grow  by  15.5%  to  1.02m  tonnes  as  production reverts  to  its  normalized  growth  trajectory  following  a  suppressed  2012.  CPO  production increased faster than FFB last year (+11.6% y-o-y) as the company bumped up third party crop purchases.
Planted  land  going  for  cheaper  amid  soft  CPO  prices.  Asking  prices  for  planted  oil palm estates in Sarawak have come off its peak recently amid weak CPO prices. A planted peat area previously calling for RM60k per ha is now available at RM45k per ha. SOP finds current  asking  prices  still  on  the  expensive  end  following  its  recent  minority  interest buyback for two of its subsidiaries at RM41k per ha.

Landbank  squeeze.  Unplanted  agricultural  land  prices,  in contrast,  have  risen to  RM12k per  ha  from  the  RM7k–RM10k  per  ha  seen  when  CPO  prices  breached  RM4,000  per tonne  in  early  2008.  The company’s planted area has grown to 63,253  ha,  with  the remaining  unplanted  landbank  standing  at  just  9.4k  ha.  Although  the company’s medium term production prospects will not be materially affected by a slowdown in new planting, a larger landbank will be necessary to sustain long term production growth.

One  of  our  best  sector  buy  ideas. We  value  SOP at  a  FV  of  RM6.77,  based on  13.0x FY13 PE. The company continues to be one of our top plantation sector buy ideas  for its strong growth prospects, solid management and attractive valuations. Despite the industry-wide weak earnings in FY12 (4QFY12 is likely to be poor again in view of soft CPO prices), SOP  represents  particularly  good  value  within  the  Malaysian  plantation  space.  It  also possesses one of the best tree age profiles in terms of near- and medium-term production growth while trading at valuations below the industry benchmark (FY13 PE - SOP: 11.2x, plantation industry: 15.0x).
36%  earnings  growth  in  2013.  We  believe  2013  will  be  a  brighter  year,  fuelled  by  i) improving  production,  ii)  better  refining  margins  and  iii)  cheaper  fertilizer  costs,  despite potentially softer average CPO prices on a y-o-y basis. Should we benchmark SOP to the plantation industry’s average FY13 PE  of  15.0x,  its  current  share  price  implies  average CPO prices of RM2,100 per tonne for 2013. Our FY13 earnings forecast is based on CPO prices of RM2,750 per tonne.
Source: OSK

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