We attended Muhibbah’s analyst briefing last Friday and are optimistic over
the initiatives taken by management to solve the APH issue via a SPV.
Management reiterated that its APH receivables write-off is fairly muted at
this juncture as the company is finalising a debt to equity swap with APH and CIMB Bank by July
2012. Meanwhile, Muhibbah’s current construction order book remains healthy at
RM2.2b, which comprises of projects
such as i)
Wiggins Island Coal
Export Terminal (WICET), ii) LNG regasification project in
Melaka (EPCIC), iii) catering facilities project in New Doha International
Airpot, Qatar, etc. Its current order books for the crane and shipbuilding
segments are also robust at RM760m and RM113m respectively. We are maintaining
our OUTPERFORM recommendation with the unchanged Target Price of RM1.97 based
on SOP valuation. We believe that the finalisation of the APH issue will lift
the share price performance.
Another RM1.0b for
APH completion. Based on its initial
work scope, APH is already 60% completed. Management is of the view that to
complete the remaining 40% of the work scope, APH needs another RM1.0b and with
another 2-year time frame to complete.
With regards to the debt-equity swap exercise, management said it is in the midst of discussion with other APH’s
creditors to set up a Special Purpose
Vehicle (SPV) to develop and revive the project. The SPV is believed to raise
another RM1.0b to finance the project. However, management is still awaiting
updates from the auditors to qualify the shareholdings structure of the SPV. The next key milestone
on this development is July 2012, when the court order for the SPV
expires.
Favelle Favco’s
prospect remains positive. The
outlook for the crane division under Favelle Favco remains positive with its
current order book of RM760m for the next 2 years. The division posted a
double-digit growth (+66%) in net profit from RM28.6m to RM47.6m in FY11. The
group is currently operating four plants in four countries, i.e. i) Senawang,
Malaysia, ii) Sydney, Australia, iii) Copenhagen, Denmark and iv) Texas, USA. A
big chunk of its contracts (79%) is generated from overseas markets and mostly
(69%) from global oil and gas companies. Moving forward, we believe that its
crane division will continue to do well as its cranes are niche equipments and
have been used to build some of the world’s tallest buildings such as Burj
Khalifa, Freedom Tower, Taipei 101, etc.
Outstanding order
book stands at RM3.2b. Presently,
Muhibbah’s outstanding order book stands at RM3.2b, which is mainly derived
from its construction division contracts worth RM2.2b followed by its cranes
division and shipyard division contracts worth RM760m and RM113m respectively. As
we understand, Muhibbah is slated to tender for another EPCIC project from
Petronas once it has completed the current EPCIC project in Melaka. However,
the project in New Doha International Airport, Qatar is facing some minor
delays due to variation orders from the owner.
We are maintaining
our OUTPERFORM recommendation on Muhibbah with an unchanged Target Price of
RM1.97 based on SOP valuation. There
are no changes to our FY12E earnings estimates and we have factored in a RM500m
order book replenishment assumption in our forecast. To date, the total
projects value secured is at RM96m, which is the extension works for the WICET
project. We have not included the potential value from APH in our fair value
pending the finalisation of the SPV shareholding structure i.e. the percentage
of equity portion for Muhibbah.
Source: Kenanga
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