Period 4Q12
Actual vs. Expectations
FY12 net profit of
RM194m was within expectations, making up 98% of the street’s FY12E earnings of
RM198m and 95% of our RM205m.
Dividends 4.0
sen single-tier dividend (2.0% yield) exceeded our FY12E NDPS of 2.0 sen
(payable on 3-Jul-12).
Key Results Highlights
YoY, FY12 bottom line
fell 11% because FY11 recorded gains on disposal of RM63m on the sale of AEON@Melaka.
Excluding the gains on disposal, FY12 core earnings grew 23% on major billings
from The Light and on-going townships.
QoQ, 4Q12 pretax
profit jumped 20% to RM91.4m. However, the corresponding bottom line was flat (+1%)
at RM56m as effective tax rates hit a high of 35% (3Q12: 27%) because of
non-deductible expenses and under-accruals in prior years.
FY12 recorded RM1.4b
(-8% YoY) non en bloc sales, which is in line with our initial target. New
project launches included Vertiq@MetroEast Penang (GDV: RM230m) and The
Address@Bukit Jambul, Penang (GDV: RM130m). Johor sales have also done tremendously
well, making up c.15% of sales vs. its typical less than 10% of full year
sales.
Outlook Management mentioned that the tighter mortgage
assessment has impacted overall demand, although affordable housing is still
highly sought after. In the medium term, the group will be driving its sales from
The Light and its stable of mass housing projects (Shah Alam 2, S2@Seremban,
Johor projects) and the long-awaited township, Rimbayu (a.k.a. Canal City),
which is slated to have a GDV of RM11b. We understand a project preview could
take place in the next two months. Management targets FY13E sales of up to RM1.5b.
Change to Forecasts
No material changes
to our FY13-14E core earnings of RM235m-RM259m based on unchanged sales targets
of RM1.5b-RM1.6b. Unbilled sales of RM1.2b provides a 1 year visibility.
Rating MAINTAIN MARKET PERFORM
More affordable products coming on line. Expectations
of Canal City projects could propel FY14 to newer heights, but this is still
some time away. Meanwhile, the company will be subjected to the sector’s
unexciting dynamics.
Valuation No
changes to our TP of RM2.28 based on a 21% discount* to our FD SOP RNAV of
RM2.89.
Risks Unable
to meet sales targets. Delays in launches of catalyst projects like Canal City
and Sebana Cove. Sector risks, including negative policies.
Source: Kenanga
No comments:
Post a Comment