We visited ECS recently and came back with a positive view.
The outlook of the group remains bright and we expect ECS to record a high
single-digit revenue growth in FY12 underpinned by i) higher sales from
ultrabook and tablet, ii) better enterprise systems segment, iii) rising
smartphone business iv) and a better consumer spending. Its FY12 net profit is
expected to growth by a double digit, thanks to higher margin to be enjoyed on
its upcoming smartphone business.
Management has earlier guided that the smartphone business will commence
in June 2012. We have raised our FY12-FY13 net profit by 2.4% and 4.1% to RM33.5m
and RM35.6m, respectively, after taking the new smartphone business into
consideration. In line with our earnings upgrade, we have raised our TP to
RM1.70 (from RM1.66 previously) based on the unchanged target PER of 6.1x.
Maintain OUTPERFORM rating.
ICT distribution
segment is expected to be boosted by higher ultrabook laptop and tablet sales. ECS is optimistic on its ICT distribution
segment and is targeting to grow it by 10% YoY for FY12, underpinned by the
increasing number of distribution brands for its ultrabook laptops and
encouraging sales in its tablet business. The group has expanded its single
ultrabook laptop brand (ASUS) to another three well-known brands (i.e. Lenovo,
HP and Dell) in 1Q12. Its tablet business meanwhile is also showing encouraging
sales thanks to the new iPad and popular Samsung’s Galaxy Tab series. We expect
the ICT distribution segment to record a 7.9% YoY growth in turnover with
sustainable GP margin of 4.5%. We understand that laptop, tablet, and ultrabook sales account
for c.60% of ICT distribution segment turnover.
Enterprise Systems
remained upbeat. The group is expected to record a similar YoY growth of
8-9% for its enterprise systems products (i.e. server, network systems, data
centers and enterprise software), underpinned by higher industry demand for its
Cloud Computing products with a sustainable gross profit margin of c.10%.
Targeting to push its
smartphone business in June 2012. We understand the group has recently
secured a deal from one of the biggest smartphone makers from China and is
targeting to launch it in the Malaysian in June 2012. Despite the deal not being
an exclusive distributorship and the smartphone brand already existed in the
local market, we however view the agreement positively. With existing strong distribution
channels coupled with hundreds of potential phone resellers, ECS could
potentially benefit from this new market segment. IDC, the leading provider of
data-driven research and analysis in the region, is expecting the smartphone
segment to record a sales value of USD1.6b (RM4.9b) in Malaysia in year 2012.
We estimate this segment to contribute around RM29.0m for FY12 and marginally
higher GP margin than distribution segment. In addition, IDC Research is expecting Malaysia’s IT spending
to record a 5-year CAGR of 9.9% for the period of 2010-2015 (including the
smartphone segment) while without the smartphone segment, the CAGR is expected
at 6.7%.
Expecting double
digit net profit growth in FY12 to RM33.5m (+11% YoY) underpinned by 1) higher sales from its ICT distribution segment
driven by better sales of ultrabook and tablets, 2) rising smartphone business
3) better enterprise systems 4) and also a better consumer spending.
Source: Kenanga
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