Friday 22 February 2013

YTL Power International - 2Q13 in line, looking to a strong 2H


Period    2Q13

Actual vs. Expectations   The 1H13 net profit of RM508.9m accounted for 40% of our FY13 full-year estimate and 42% that of the market consensus.

 We consider this to be within expectations as seasonally, 2H is much stronger than the 1H. 

Dividends   For the first time in more than five years, the company did not declare any quarterly dividends. This is somewhat disappointing. The last time it did not declare a quarterly dividend was in 1Q08.  

Key Results Highlights  2Q13 net profit rose 1% QoQ to RM256.1m although the revenue dipped by 2% to RM4.01b. This was mainly due to growth at Wessex Water (+25% at PBT’ level) and the local IPPs (+10%) although it was offset partially by Seraya, which saw its PBT falling 25% in the quarter. The strong numbers from Wessex Water was due to the fact that it was allowed to raise prices in Oct 2012. Meanwhile, YES’ losses at the pretax level widened to RM77.0m from RM60.7m previously despite its revenue expanding 16%.

 However, 2Q13 net income, contracted 18% YoY from that of RM313.8m a year ago as it recorded a one-time recovery of excess generation last year in 2Q12 while Seraya registered a lower fuel oil price in the current quarter coupled with the lower sales volume for its trading division. On a positive note, YES’ losses at the pretax level narrowed to RM77.0m from RM102.1m in 2Q12.  

Outlook   The company’s cash pile remained strong as RM10.0b but its dividend payouts have been weakening consistently. Thus, we strongly believe that the group is conserving cash for more M&A opportunities, which could give rise to good bargain opportunities given the current global economic uncertainty.  

Change to Forecasts  No changes to our FY13-FY14 estimates and NDPS. However, we would trim our NDPS assumptions should the company continue to disappoint in its dividend payouts in the coming quarters.   

Rating   Maintain MARKET PERFORM

 Although the dividends yields are unappealing, the stock is trading at trough levels of FY12-13E PBV of 1.1x-1.0x and PER of 8x-9x.

Valuation    Our price target is maintained at RM1.51/share, based on an unchanged targeted FY13 net yield of 3.5%.  

Risks   Lower dividend payouts, YES’ losses continue to widen and the rise in the global economic risks, especially in Europe.

Source: Kenanga 

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