Thursday 28 February 2013

PPB Group - Flour division affected by grains trading position Hold


- Maintain HOLD on PPB Group Bhd, with an unchanged fair value of RM13.15/share. Our fair value of RM13.15/share is based on a PE of 16x on FY13F EPS.

- In the past seven years, PPB Group’s PE ranged from a low of 8.7x to a high of 26.1x. Average PE was at 16.4x.

- PPB’s 18%-owned associate, Wilmar International, is currently trading at an FY13F PE of 13.6x versus PPB’s 14.9x.

- PPB’s FY12 results were above our forecast and consensus estimates due to Wilmar’s strong net profit in 4QFY12.

- On a YoY basis, PPB’s net profit fell by 14.1% to RM842.2mil in FY12 as share of profits in associate declined 12.5% to RM712.5mil.

- Excluding Wilmar, PPB’s EBIT was let down by lower contributions from the grains trading and flour, and cinema divisions.

- The grains trading and flour division was affected by unfavourable grains trading position, which suffered a loss of RM13.6mil in FY12. After a fair value loss in 3QFY12, the loss swung into a gain of RM27.6mil in 4QFY12.

- Using low protein soft red wheat as a gauge, wheat price shrank roughly 4.6% from an average of US$8.34 15/16/bushel in FY11 to US$7.96 3/8/bushel in FY12.

- On a quarterly basis, wheat price eased 2.4% QoQ to US$8.64 15/16/bushel in 4QFY12.

- Losses at the chemicals, livestock, investments and other operations division declined from RM5mil in 3QFY12 to RM2.4mil in 4QFY12. We believe that this was partly due to a 2-sen increase in the selling price of chicken eggs. The hike in selling price took place at end-October 2012.

- The division was also boosted by positive performance from the bread sub-division.

- Massimo bread sub-division has broken-even after a mere 1½ years of operations. This is in spite of the bread products still being sold at their promotional prices.

- However on a yearly basis, the chemicals, livestock, investments and other operations recorded a loss of RM15.8mil in FY12 versus a profit of RM12.3mil in FY11.

Source: AmeSecurities

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