Automotive - January sales grew YoY, but slowed MoM

Total vehicle sales in January 2013 increased 34% YoY due to a low base effect as last year’s sales were affected by a multiple of factors such as: (i) a weak consumer sentiment due to the introduction of Bank Negara’s new lending guidelines, (ii) shorter working days due to the Chinese New Year holidays, and (iii) some car companies were still recovering from the production cuts caused by the Thai floods. Meanwhile, although promotional activities by the car companies were still ongoing in January, sales slowed down by 9% MoM. The sales of passenger cars were largely from Perodua and Proton. Perodua’s sales increased 15% YoY but fell 17% MoM while Proton’s sales grew both YoY and MoM by 6% and 15% respectively, possibly backed by the improved sales of its Preve models. For the non-national car segment, Nissan has replaced Toyota’s usual top spot, gaining a market share of 10%. Sales for Nissan passenger cars more than doubled YoY in January mainly due to the overwhelming response for its Nissan Almera models.

January sales rose 34% YoY. Total industry volume (TIV) for January rose 34% YoY to 55,066 units as car companies continued their promotional campaigns and also as vehicle sales in January 2012 were affected by shorter working days from the Chinese New Year holidays. However, the MoM sales slowed by 9%. Passenger vehicles sales grew 32% YoY to 48,720 units while sales for commercial vehicles were up 55% to 6,346 units. January’s TIV made up 9% of the Malaysian Automotive Association’s (MAA) 2013 forecast of 640,000 units.

Proton’s sales improved. Sales of the passenger cars were largely from Perodua and Proton. Perodua sold 15,785 units of cars in January, an increase of 15% YoY, but it fell by 17% MoM. In contrast, sales by Proton increased both YoY and MoM to 12,174 units, up 6% and 15% respectively, possibly backed by the improved sales of its Preve models.

Nissan replaces Toyota at the top. Nissan has replaced Toyota’s usual top spot in the nonnational passenger car segment. Sales for Nissan passenger cars more than doubled YoY in January to 5,028 units mainly due to the overwhelming response for its Nissan Almera models, while sales for its commercial vehicles grew 59% YoY and 21% MoM. Edaran Tan Chong Malaysia (ETCM), the distributor for Nissan cars, is targeting to capture a 10% market share for 2013 (2012: 5.8%) through launches of new models and attractive packages. We understand that ETCM is looking at launching a total of 66 models this year, of which 23 new models will be launched in 1Q2013. Meanwhile, Toyota passenger car sales grew 26% YoY, but dropped 40% MoM to 4,348 units.

A good start for Honda. Although lower MoM, Honda’s passenger car sales jumped by eightfold YoY as its production normalized from last year. Recall that Honda’s sales in 1H2012 were affected by a production halt caused by the floods in Thailand. For 2013, Honda has set a sales target of 64,000 units and a 10% market share. Its management has announced plans to launch five new cars this year, which include three locally-assembled models.

Maintain Neutral on the sector. We are maintaining our Neutral stance on the auto sector, preferring DRBHCOM (OP, TP: RM3.45) for its high growth potential in its auto division and the group’s planned transformation to unlock assets, earnings and cash. As for the other key players, we have MARKET PERFORM ratings on MBMR (TP: RM3.40), UMW (TP: RM12.37) and TCHONG (TP: RM4.36).

Source: Kenanga