News Last week, Alam Maritim Resources Bhd (“ALAM”)
announced that it had been awarded a contract from Petronas Carigali
(Peninsular division) for the provision of two offshore support vessels (OSVs)
to support the Client’s Drilling Campaign.
The contract is for a
primary period of seven months with an extension option of another three months
and is valued at approximately RM30.2m (inclusive of the optional period).
Comments Management has guided that the two OSVs are a
10k and 5k bhp Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessels respectively and are
on third-party charters.
Based on the contact
value, the daily charter rate (DCR) of the contract comes up to c.USD2.17/bhp
for both the vessels. We suspect the 5k bhp vessel could be fetching around
USD1.9-2/bhp and the 10k bhp vessel at around USD2.10-2.20/bhp. These rates are
pretty decent and we suspect are due to the shortterm tenure of the charter.
Given that they are thirdparty charters, we believe their net margins would be around
10-15% and as such, this contract should yield a net profit of around
RM3-4m.
While we are positive
on the extension of this contract as it showed Alam’s ability to continue
winning contracts, we had already incorporated in around RM15m earnings of
third-party charters for CY13, which would accommodate this win. Hence, it is
seen as having a neutral impact to our current forecasts.
Outlook Alam
is expected to release its 4QFY12 by end-Feb 13. We believe its results could
be sequentially lower (versus 3QFY12) due to the monsoon season.
We believe the OSV
market is finally turning around and expect it to remain vibrant (similar to
the heightened activities seen in 2007-2008). Further OSV awards are expected
from the other PSC players such as Murphy Oil.
Catalysts for the
stock will be higher contract flows for its Underwater Services division (OIC
and Subsea), of which we are currently projecting only a single-digit operating
profit in 2013.
Forecast Maintaining FY12-14E earnings.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation Our
unchanged TP of RM1.09 is based on a targeted PER of 12.0x on its FY13 EPS of
9.2 sen. Our ascribed PER is justified given that it is still at a discount to ALAM’s
2-year forward average PER of 12.6x and its peak of 19.0x seen in
2007-2008.
Risks 1) A
sudden slowdown in OSV contracts going forward
and 2) lower than expected contract wins for ALAM’s underwater
division
Source: Kenanga
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