Wednesday 31 October 2012

Oil & Gas Sector - Fast-track maiden offshore project for Pahang Neutral


 - Sweden-based Lundin Oil is expected develop the first offshore oil project in Pahang with production scheduled for 4Q2014. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said the state’s 5% oil royalty is expected to amount to RM100mil annually with production expected of between 17,500 and 20,000 barrels per day (bpd). 

- The Bertam oil field at Block PM 307, at the shallow water depth of 76 metres and 160km off the shore of Kuantan in Peninsular Malaysia, has reserves of 64mil barrels  (See location map in Chart 1). Lundin Oil has a 75% stake in the production-sharing contract, while Petronas holds the balance 25%. This finding is significant as there has never been a discovery of sufficient size for commercial development in the Penyu Basin, at the southern area of the Malay Basin. 

- Lundin’s exploratory drilling started in 2011 which resulted in 3 discoveries and one successful appraisal well in Bertam. This Bertam project is clearly a fast-track development, as production is expected slightly more than a year after the completion of the commercial and technical feasibility studies by 2Q2013. 

- Given that this will be the first such project in Pahang and that there is likely to be no direct pipeline network nearby, we expect Lundin to employ a floating production storage offloading vessel to process and help in the transportation of the oil. Local companies which are expected to be bidding to provide these services are MISC, BumiArmada, TH Heavy Engineering and M3Nergy. 

- But we also expect fabrication contracts to build wellhead platforms to be awarded by mid-2013. The usual players are SapuraKencana Petroleum and Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings. But other domestic players such as TH Heavy Engineering and Boustead Heavy Industries Corp may also enter the fray.

- These developments are positive for the industry in the longer term. But while the capex upward trend is still intact in the immediate term, fabrication contracts for new offshore platform projects are temporarily slowing down  due to project complexities, re-tendering exercises, re-engineering and deferrals. We note that large central processing platform awards for the North Malay Basin Phase 2, as well as the Bokor, Dulang and Semarang fields could slip into early next year from earlier expectations of this year. Hence, the momentum of new contract rollouts has shifted from pure fabrication to offshore installation works in the sector’s value chain over the next six months. 

- But the hook-up, commissioning and maintenance works, which include the replacement of expiring long-term contracts, are likely to materialise towards the end of this year. Petronas and its production-sharing contractors are currently holding an open Pan-Malaysian tender for hook-up, construction and commissioning (HUCC) works potentially worth RM8bil-RM10bil, with interested bidders including SapuraKencana Petroleum, Dayang Enterprise, Petra Energy, and possibly, Shapadu. 

- We maintain our Neutral stance on the sector with our top BUYs being Dialog Group and Petronas Gas, which are expected to be re-rated from the multiple tank terminal and LNG regassification projects in the pipeline. 

Source: AmeSecurities 

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