WTI Crude Futures- Testing 200-day MAV Line

The commodity’s rebound since its second failed test of the USD86.50 support level is not over as it stays well above the rising 50-day MAV line. Nonetheless, the rebound remains against the backdrop of a decline that started in late February. The presence of sellers is keenly felt at the USD97.50 resistance level, where the commodity failed to violate despite testing it several times last week. The commodity is now back below the 200-day MAV line after a false break earlier. Note too that the “Death Cross”, a negative longer-term indicator, occurred in June.

The presence of sellers should continue to keep prices low but weakness needs to be confirmed by a close below the broken USD95 resistance level. This may rekindle the decline that started in late February, where a series of lower highs are still intact. Immediate supports are at July’s high of USD92.80 and 10 Aug’s low of USD91.70. Selling may intensify by a close below the USD90 support level - the 38% retracement level of the Feb-July decline. Further supports are at USD86.50, 29 June’s “Long White Day’s” high of USD85, as well as USD83.33, which is 4 July’s low of the “Long White Day”. A sustained close above USD95 however, indicates that buying support is not letting up. Still, a violation of the USD97.50 resistance level, the 62% retracement of the Feb-July decline, is needed to keep the rebound going. A breakout increases the odds of breaking March’s high of USD110, with the next resistance level at mid-April’s low of USD101.

Source: OSK