Period 2Q12
Actual vs. Expectations
The 1H12 core NP of
RM406m came in above expectations and accounted for 56.3% and 54.2% of ours and
the street’s full-year estimates.
Dividends Declared an interim single-tier dividend of
9.8 sen with the ex-date on 12 Sept. For FY12, we expect TM to declare a total 50.1 sen in dividends
(20.1 sen annual dividend + 30.0 sen special dividend).
Key Result Highlights
YoY, revenue rose by
10% to RM4.8b, driven by higher contribution from all its segments i.e. Voice
(+1%), Data (+6%), Internet (+22%) and other telco related services (+24%).
Reported EBITDA grew by 7% to RM1.58b although the margin dipped by 1.2pp to
32.5% due mainly to the higher direct and maintenance costs.
QoQ, the turnover was
up by 2% due to the increase in the Internet (+3%) and other related services
(+10%) but this was partially offset by lower revenue from the Data (-2%) and
Voice (-0.2%) divisions. Despite the moderate increase in revenue, the core NP
jumped 22% due mainly to a forex loss vs. a forex gain in 1Q12.
Unifi’s subscribers
grew by 22% QoQ to 384k at the end of 2Q12 with a blended ARPU of RM181 (-RM1
QoQ). To date, Unifi’s subscribers have reached more than 420k on the back of
1.23m premises covered in 81 exchange areas. This translates into a take-up
rate of 33%. Streamyx subscribership on the other hand, dropped by 1.9% to
1.63m (ARPU was maintained at RM79).
Outlook No
change in its FY12 headline KPIs target despite recording the good set of
results (Rev.
+5.0% YoY and EBITDA margin at 32%).
Change to Forecasts
We have raised FY12,
FY13 and FY14 core NP by 10.4%, 4.3% and
0.2%, respectively, to RM797m, RM830m and RM851m after lowering 1) the direct
cost (from 18.5% to 18.1% as a % of sales) and 2) marketing cost (from 5.5% to 4.3%)
and 3) the effective tax rate (from 23% to 22%).
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation In
tandem with the earnings upgrade, we have raised our TP to RM6.45 (from RM6.36 previously)
based on an unchanged targeted FY13 EV/forward EBITDA of 7.6x (+2 SD).
Risks A
potential slowdown in broadband subscribers and persisting margin
pressure.
Source: Kenanga
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