Despite a higher close, the index failed to break above the 1,650-pt resistance level as selling continued. The “Long Upper Shadow” formed yesterday signalled a lack of buying conviction, as suggested by the “Dojis” and black candles of last week. Though weak, more is needed to conclusively signal an end to the index’s three-month rebound. The index is comfortably above both the 50-day MAV line and the rising 200-day MAV line, supported by the longer-term positive “Golden Cross” that emerged in February.
Again, the index has to close above 1,650 pts to keep the upward bias going. Resistance can be reasonably expected at every 10-pt interval, with the next level at 1,660 pts. However, failure to close above 1,650 pts should see a continuation in selling, potentially reigniting the negative bias that appeared three weeks ago. Weakness will be confirmed if the index closes below last week’s low of 1,642 pts, nullifying the “Long White Day’s” upward bias on 13 Aug. Supports are expected at 1,638 pts, 3 Aug’s low of 1,630 pts and August’s low of 1,623 pts. Further support is at 1,614 pts, followed by 5 July’s low of 1,610 pts. Stronger support remains just above the 1,600-pt psychological level, at 1,602.50 pts.
FCPO: Above RM3,000
The commodity continues higher in an upward bias following its repeated failed tests of RM2,850 last week. Its strength was underlined by the morning gap above the RM3,000 psychological resistance level and a close on a full-bodied white candle. It is also above the 50-day MAV line. Nonetheless, the rebound is still viewed in the context of a downtrend that started in late March, with the latest lower highs at RM3,193 and RM3,182. The commodity remains below the 200-day MAV line, reinforced by the longer-term negative indication of the “Death Cross” that emerged in early July.
Thus, an upward bias should continue for the time being, and a firm bias should not see it below RM3,000. Resistance is now at RM3,100 – the 38% retracement of the April-June decline. This is followed by 16 July’s high of RM3,160 and the prior highs of RM3,182 and RM3,193. A sustained close above all three levels should bring an end to the five-month decline. Supports are now at RM3,050 and RM3,000. A quick change in sentiment may take place should the commodity close back below RM3,000. The resulting negative bias could be potent and may even lead to a break of the RM2,850 support level. Supports are also seen at last Friday’s high of RM2,975, last Thursday’s morning high of RM2,915 and last Thursday’s low of RM2,880.
Source: OSK
No comments:
Post a Comment