Carlsberg’s FY12 profits of RM191.6m (+15.3% y-o-y) were within expectations. Despite a delay in Chinese New Year (CNY) purchases this year, steady volume growth and stronger premium beer sales in the domestic market drove up its FY12 earnings. The group’s 4Q bottomline was seasonally weaker as trade speculation in 3Q led to higher stockpiling among retailers. With 2014 CNY falling in end-January next year, FY13 earnings are likely to benefit from two rounds of CNY sales this year, namely in January and December. Maintain BUY, with FV of RM14.12.
Within expectations. Carlsberg registered 4QFY12 revenue of RM336.5m (+0.5% y-o-y, -18.1% q-o-q) and earnings of RM40.5m (+8.4% y-o-y, -33.7% q-o-q). 4Q is a seasonally weaker quarter after a strong 3Q amid trade speculation prior to the annual Budget announcement. Weak sales volume generally follows in 4Q as retailers gradually deplete their high stockpiles. Moreover, the Chinese New Year’s celebrations, which took place in February this year compared to January last year, pushed the annual festive purchases into 1QFY13, leading to a flat y-o-y 4Q revenue growth. Full-year FY12 revenue and profits clocked in at RM1,584.8m (+6.4% y-o-y) and RM191.6m (+15.3% y-o-y) respectively, driven by steady volume growth and increased premium beer sales. The improved product mix (as a result of its increasing foothold in the premium beer segment) also led to higher ASPs. The year’s earnings represent 100.1% and 100.9% of our and consensus estimates.
Malaysia – the bread and butter. Carlsberg’s FY12 profit growth was purely driven by its Malaysian operations, with EBIT expanding by 18.9% y-o-y to RM169.0m following its aggressive marketing initiatives locally and widening brand portfolio. Meanwhile, its Singaporean business endured a lukewarm FY12 performance, with EBIT declining by 3.0% y-o-y to RM74.7m.
FY13 sees double CNY cheer. With the 2014 Chinese New Year falling on 31 Jan 2014, at least some portion of CNY-driven beer shipments to retailers is likely to take place in December this year. Should this be the case, the beer manufacturers’ 2013 earnings will potentially book in two rounds of CNY sales. The CNY celebrations are by far the most important annual festival for beer consumption in the country.
Within expectations. Carlsberg registered 4QFY12 revenue of RM336.5m (+0.5% y-o-y, -18.1% q-o-q) and earnings of RM40.5m (+8.4% y-o-y, -33.7% q-o-q). 4Q is a seasonally weaker quarter after a strong 3Q amid trade speculation prior to the annual Budget announcement. Weak sales volume generally follows in 4Q as retailers gradually deplete their high stockpiles. Moreover, the Chinese New Year’s celebrations, which took place in February this year compared to January last year, pushed the annual festive purchases into 1QFY13, leading to a flat y-o-y 4Q revenue growth. Full-year FY12 revenue and profits clocked in at RM1,584.8m (+6.4% y-o-y) and RM191.6m (+15.3% y-o-y) respectively, driven by steady volume growth and increased premium beer sales. The improved product mix (as a result of its increasing foothold in the premium beer segment) also led to higher ASPs. The year’s earnings represent 100.1% and 100.9% of our and consensus estimates.
Malaysia – the bread and butter. Carlsberg’s FY12 profit growth was purely driven by its Malaysian operations, with EBIT expanding by 18.9% y-o-y to RM169.0m following its aggressive marketing initiatives locally and widening brand portfolio. Meanwhile, its Singaporean business endured a lukewarm FY12 performance, with EBIT declining by 3.0% y-o-y to RM74.7m.
FY13 sees double CNY cheer. With the 2014 Chinese New Year falling on 31 Jan 2014, at least some portion of CNY-driven beer shipments to retailers is likely to take place in December this year. Should this be the case, the beer manufacturers’ 2013 earnings will potentially book in two rounds of CNY sales. The CNY celebrations are by far the most important annual festival for beer consumption in the country.
Maintain BUY. We are keeping our forecasts unchanged and continue to value Carlsberg at a FV of RM14.12, based on a FCFF valuation (WACC: 7.6%, terminal growth: 2.2%). The company is aggressively expanding its presence in the higher-margin premium and super premium segment, spearheaded by its two locally brewed premium brands, Asahi and Kronenbourg. Carlsberg has, over the past few years, successfully transformed itself from a single brand company to one with a formidable brand portfolio. With its wide range of premium beer offerings, we think Carlsberg will continue to give Guinness Anchor Berhad (GAB), the current premium beer market leader, a run for its money.
Source: OSK
No comments:
Post a Comment