Wednesday, 23 January 2013

Capitamalls Malaysia Trust - Asset-enhancement initiative to turn positive HOLD


- We re-affirm our HOLD recommendation on CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT), with a higher fair value of RM2.00/unit vs. RM 1.68/unit previously, based on our DCF valuation, as we roll  forward our valuation to FY13F.

- CMMT reported a realised net profit of RM37mil for 4QFY12, which brought full-year FY12 net profit to RM149mil. The results were in-line with our, and consensus, estimates. A DPU of 2.11 sen was declared for 4Q. All in, the group achieved DPU of 8.44 sen (+7.2% YoY) and dividend yield of 4.5% for FY12. 

- FY12’s realised income increased by 26% YoY on the back of 25% rise in revenue. Full-year contribution of East Coast Mall and completion of asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) at Gurney Plaza had driven the 20% YoY increase in net property income (NPI). A RM15m revaluation gain was recorded for the quarter, bringing the total portfolio size to RM2.9bil. 

- Gurney Plaza’s AEI, particularly the revenue-generating AEI, was completed at end-FY12, adding 4,450sf NLA to the basement and ground floor. Meanwhile, the mall’s NPI margin fell to 68.1% from 71.3% as the group embarked on selling electricity  in early 2012. CMMT sells electricity to tenants and acts as the intermediary by buying from TNB at a lower rate. No change in price paid by tenants. Given that the low margins from this business, this has resulted in a slight fall to overall NPI margins. Moving forward, CMMT intends to introduce this on-selling of electricity to other malls. 

- Furthermore, major upgrading work on the 35 year-old Sungei Wang Plaza is to complete by end-FY13F, with the group’s one-off capex of RM17.6mil. We expect improvement in rentals post-refurbishment. Note that rental reversion was flat at 0% for FY12. Conversely, other CMMT portfolio reported positive rental reversions at a healthy +6.4% overall. 

- We believe there is potential rental upside in the East Coast Mall, given that the average rental is fairly low at circa RM6psf. Pending approvals from relevant authorities, the plan is to convert the carpark opposite the mall into additional retail space (+23% NLA), which could be ready in 2 years.   

- We forecast growth of between 5%-6% in earnings for FY13F-FY15F and introduce our FY15F earnings. Our model assumes a 100% distribution ratio. Projected dividend yield of 4.7% and 5% for FY13F and FY14F, respectively – on parity to Pavilion REIT (PREIT Mk Equity, BUY). 

- CMMT is backed by a strong sponsor, CapitaMalls Asia (CMA). We like CMMT for its well-diversified portfolio mix and resilient income stream. Assets in the pipeline include Queensbay Mall in Penang. Despite the lack of asset injection in the immediate-to near-term, CMA is developing a retail mall in Taman Melawati with Sime Darby. Any potential acquisition will continue to focus on day-to-day necessity shopping – in line with CMMT’s current portfolio of assets.  

Source: AmeSecurities

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