HELP’s FY12 net profit of RM13.5m was below our and consensus estimates, at 86.5% and 78.5% of both full-year forecasts respectively owing to the weaker-than-expected performance from its Fraser Business Park campus. Having said that, we believe the numbers would rebound in FY13 and hence, make no changes to our forecasts for now. Maintain NEUTRAL, with our FV unchanged at RM1.93, based on 10x FY13f PE and a FY13f net cash per share of RM0.46.
FY12 numbers flat. HELP’s FY12 revenue jumped 8.3% y-o-y to RM117.1m, buoyed by an estimated higher enrolment base of 13k as of October 2012. EBIT, however, dipped 0.7% y-o-y to RM21.4m due to high depreciation expenses from its Fraser campus, which has yet to achieve economies of scale as it had only had 1.2k students on board. All in, the company’s FY12 core earnings went up by a marginal 3.4% y-o-y RM13.5m due to lower interest and taxation expenses, but fell short of our expectations owing to the weaker-than-expected performance at its new Fraser Business Park campus, which closed the year with a net loss of RM8.5m. On a quarterly basis, the company’s 4QFY12 numbers were generally higher y-o-y and q-o-q, with revenue of RM30.1m and core earnings of RM4.5m due to a higher student base.
International school to start in 4QCY13. Meanwhile, the progress on its proposed RM30m international school remains largely on track and classes should commence in 4QCY13 with an initial intake of 300 students. At an annual average fee of RM30k per student, the new school can potentially chalk up income of more than RM20m once it reaches full capacity, assuming a net margin of 20%. As we have yet to incorporate this into our model, there is a possibility of an earnings revision when the campus moves closer to completion.
Ground works on campus well in progress. Funding for HELP’s proposed RM160m university campus has yet to be finalized as management is still considering various options. In view of the quantum required, we continue to believe that this may involve equity and debt issuance. We expect management to firm up the financing latest by 1QCY13.
NEUTRAL. Despite the weaker FY12 underperformance, we are making no changes to our forecasts at this juncture as we believe that the company’s numbers are likely to rebound in FY13 on an anticipated improvement at its Fraser campus. Management said efforts are currently in place to boost registration at the new campus to the target breakeven enrolment base of 2k within the next two years. Hence, we reiterate our NEUTRAL call, with our FV unchanged at RM1.93, based on a 10x FY13 PE, plus our forecast FY13 net cash per share of RM0.46.
FY12 numbers flat. HELP’s FY12 revenue jumped 8.3% y-o-y to RM117.1m, buoyed by an estimated higher enrolment base of 13k as of October 2012. EBIT, however, dipped 0.7% y-o-y to RM21.4m due to high depreciation expenses from its Fraser campus, which has yet to achieve economies of scale as it had only had 1.2k students on board. All in, the company’s FY12 core earnings went up by a marginal 3.4% y-o-y RM13.5m due to lower interest and taxation expenses, but fell short of our expectations owing to the weaker-than-expected performance at its new Fraser Business Park campus, which closed the year with a net loss of RM8.5m. On a quarterly basis, the company’s 4QFY12 numbers were generally higher y-o-y and q-o-q, with revenue of RM30.1m and core earnings of RM4.5m due to a higher student base.
International school to start in 4QCY13. Meanwhile, the progress on its proposed RM30m international school remains largely on track and classes should commence in 4QCY13 with an initial intake of 300 students. At an annual average fee of RM30k per student, the new school can potentially chalk up income of more than RM20m once it reaches full capacity, assuming a net margin of 20%. As we have yet to incorporate this into our model, there is a possibility of an earnings revision when the campus moves closer to completion.
Ground works on campus well in progress. Funding for HELP’s proposed RM160m university campus has yet to be finalized as management is still considering various options. In view of the quantum required, we continue to believe that this may involve equity and debt issuance. We expect management to firm up the financing latest by 1QCY13.
NEUTRAL. Despite the weaker FY12 underperformance, we are making no changes to our forecasts at this juncture as we believe that the company’s numbers are likely to rebound in FY13 on an anticipated improvement at its Fraser campus. Management said efforts are currently in place to boost registration at the new campus to the target breakeven enrolment base of 2k within the next two years. Hence, we reiterate our NEUTRAL call, with our FV unchanged at RM1.93, based on a 10x FY13 PE, plus our forecast FY13 net cash per share of RM0.46.
Source: OSK
No comments:
Post a Comment