Period 1Q12
Actual vs. Expectations
1Q12 core NP of RM557m came in within consensus estimate and
that of ours. The core earnings accounted for 22.9% and 23.9% of ours and the
street’s full-year forecasts.
Dividends 8.0 sen
interim single-tier dividend was declared, as expected. We expect Maxis to
declare a total dividend of 40.0 sen in FY12.
Key Result Highlights
YoY, revenue rose 5% to RM2.23b driven by higher
contribution from all business segments namely mobile services (+5% to
RM2.13b); Enterprise fixed services (+5% to RM46m) and home business (+100% to
RM8m) but partially offset by lower international gateway revenue (-4% to
RM46m). The group’s EBITDA grew 4% to RM1.13b with EBITDA margin stood at 50.8%
(vs 51.1%). In tandem with higher EBITDA and lower effective tax rate, the
group’s core NP grew by 3% to RM557m.
QoQ, turnover was down by 2% while reported NP drop
by -36% due
mainly to an
absent of RM328m tax incentive
recognized in the preceding quarter.
Non-voice revenue grew 13% YoY to RM970m and contributed
45.5% of mobile revenue.
90k net loss in subscribers in 1Q12 comprised of -129k in
postpaid users but partially offset by +39k subscribers in the prepaid segment
that mainly driven by Bagus plan.
On the Home services front, 41k customers have subscribed to
the services in 1Q12 and generated RM8m in turnover but suffered RM22m losses
at EBITDA level.
Outlook The group maintained its FY12 headline KPIs target
(Revenue +5% YoY; EBITDA margin <50%) and capex guidance of slightly less
than RM1.0b.
Change to Forecasts
Fine-tuning our FY12, FY13 and FY14 PAT by -1.3%, -1.0% and
-1.1% to RM2.41b; RM2.45b; and RM2.48b, respectively.
Rating Maintain MARKET PERFORM
Valuation Raise Maxis TP to RM6.00 (from RM5.80 previously),
based on higher targeted FY12 EV/forward EBITDA of 11.2x (+1.5 SD) as a result
of better growth momentum.
Risks Higher than expected margin pressure.
Source: Kenanga
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