Friday, 1 June 2012

Malaysia Steel Works - MARKET PERFORM - 1 Jun 2012


Period   1QFY12/3MFY12

Actual vs.  Expectations
Below ours and the consensus expectations. 

The company reported a net loss of RM4.9m, which was substantially below our estimated net profit of RM45.9m and that of the consensus’ forecast of RM35.7m. 

Dividends  No dividend was declared.

Key Result Highlights
Although 1Q12 earnings were in the red, it has improved from a net loss of RM13.3m in 4QFY11 due mainly to margins improvement caused by the timing difference between the jagged drop in raw materials last quarter to the higher selling price this quarter. 

YoY, the bottom line fell by 179%, having recorded a net loss of RM4.9m in 1Q12 vs. a profit of RM6.2m in 1Q11 as expensive inventories may have eroded margins.  

Outlook  Negative. 
We expect a slower 1H12 due to lacklustre demand in the international market as the longdrawn European crisis caused customers to delay their purchases. Furthermore, the oversupply of steel in China could have exacerbated the situation. 

That said, we reckon that there will be spillover demands from potential projects such as KLIA 2, the conveyor belt and jetty portion of the Vale site, the Manjung expansion as well as the Iskandar project in Johor Bahru, which should benefit Masteel going into 2H12.

Change to Forecasts
We are reducing our earnings for FY12 by 31.2% as we tweaked our scrap price assumptions. 
  
Rating  MAINTAIN MARKET PERFORM
Sector driven call.

Valuation   We have reduced our target price from RM1.19 to RM1.08 as we rolled over our valuation to FY13E on an unchanged PER of 6.0x. 

Risks  Volatile scrap prices.

Source: Kenanga

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