Monday, 23 July 2012

Capitamalls M’sia Trust - FY12F on a solid and sustainable footing Hold


- CMMT reported a 1HFY12 distribution income of RM74mil, which is largely in line within our and market expectations - making up 48%-52% of the respective forecasts.  A DPU of 4.2 sen (vs. 3.9 sen in 1HFY11, +7.7% YoY) was declared, representing a 100% distribution rate – in line with our forecast. 

- YoY (+30%)  and QoQ (+25%) topline growth was due to the newly-acquired East Coast Mall and completion of asset enhancement works at Gurney Plaza, and more importantly, higher rental reversions (1HFY12: +7.3%) in new and renewed leases. Overall occupancy remained at nearly 99%, reflecting retailers’ confidence in the attractiveness of CMMT’s malls. 

- During 2QFY12, CMMT had incurred RM8mil capital expenditure in enhancement initiatives at all its malls. The Mines has started the short-term water rectification works, while construction of a new power substation is underway. East Coast Mall has completed the upgrading works on air-conditioner chillers.

- Separately, CMMT has just received approval from the Securities Commission to establish a 20-year Medium Term Note Programme of up to RM3bil for future growth. In light of this, it provides CMMT with another source of capital with a lower cost of funding. Average cost of debt to-date stands at 4.74%. Management is constantly on a lookout for potential accretive acquisitions and is looking at cap rates of at least 7%

- Approval to convert the carpark space (+NLA 23%) in front of East Coast Mall is still underway. We believe that this positive move would suggest further yield accretion, as CMMT’s internal ROI threshold is between 8%-10%, which is higher than its distribution yield. We understand from industry sources that a retail mall freeze is likely to take effect in Penang to curb excess supply. This, we believe, is good news to CMMT as it would bring great benefits to Gurney Plaza, given the well-managed mall and increasing demand for lots. 

- The upcoming MRT at Jalan Bukit Bintang will inevitably bring positive impact to Sungei Wang Plaza, albeit some disruptions in the short term due to the construction works, whereby the MRT will be connected at the basement of the mall. MRT commuters are typically the targeted shoppers of Sungei Wang Plaza. Hence, we are of the view that the number of traffic shoppers would rise to a higher level upon completion of the rail facility. 

- No change to our HOLD rating on CMMT, and likewise our fair value of RM1.68/unit based on a 10% discount to our DCF value of RM1.86/unit, given that valuations have expanded and yields compressed. Given CMMT’s portfolio of retail malls being focused on necessity shopping and backed by Malaysia’s rising consumer affluence, we believe the medium- to long-term growth remains intact. We remain positive on CMMT, underpinned by a network of well-diversified retail malls in Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Kuantan, as well as the REIT’s strong parentage.

Source: AmeSecurities 

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