Actual vs. Expectations 1H12 realised net income (RNI) of RM68.9m was within
expectations, accounting for 49% of the street’s FY12E RNI of RM140.1m and 48%
of our RM143.5m.
Dividends A 2Q12 GDPU of 2.1sen has been
declared, making the total semi-annual dividend payout at 4.2 sen to date vs.
our FY12E GDPU of 8.1sen* (5.2% yield).
Key Results Highlights YoY, 1H12 RNI grew 30% YoY due to a full contribution
from East Coast Mall (EC). The portfolio saw strong average positive rental reversions
of 7.3% mainly driven by 1) Gurney Plaza (GP) post-AEI works, which increased
NLA by 23k sf and 2) EC Mall major lease renewals. Portfolio occupancy rate is
steady at 99%.
QoQ, 2Q12 net profit of RM132m grew 286% due to RM98.4m in
fair value gains from all the assets, particularly GP and EC, resulting in
strong NAV/unit** growth of 5% to RM1.15.
Outlook NAV is still conservative because CMMT is using cap
rates of 7.0%-7.5% vs. current cap rates of 5.5%-6.0%.
The group intends to spend c.RM30m CAPEX in FY12E (of which
c.RM9m has already been spent) mainly for Sungei Wang and then GP’s AEI.
There are no indications of any new asset injections
including Queensbay Mall.
For capital management initiatives, refer overleaf.
Change to Forecasts Maintaining FY12-13E RNI but adjusted up
FY12E GDPU by 3% to 8.4 sen (5.3% yield) to impute portions of manager fees
payable in units. There are no changes to FY13E gross yield of 5.4%.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Expecting further yield compressions due to the upcoming
listing of IGB REIT and the potential REIT-ing of KLCC Property Holding’s
assets, which should lend strength to strong valuations.
Valuation Maintaining TP of RM1.69 on targeted
FY13E net yield of 4.5%, which is the steepest valuation awarded among our
M-REIT universe as retail M- REITs are in vogue while CMMT has a pure retail asset
model.
Risks Retail sector risks. Sector de-rating if
investors switch to higher beta developers.
No comments:
Post a Comment