Period FY12
Actual vs. Expectations
FY12 net profit of RM448m exceeded expectations,
being ahead of street and our estimates by 23% and 33%, respectively. The sterling
set of results was because of a large land sale (c. RM240m) in 4Q12.
Achieved FY12E sales of RM2.46b (+12% YoY) YoY), which was
above their and our revised target of RM2.0b. 4Q12 sales saved the day since the
quarter’s sales are equivalent to 9M12 sales. We are also heartened to see
declining land sales proportion to group pretax earnings.
Dividends Proposed first and final single-tier
dividend of 3.0sen (1.4% yield) or above our 2.3sen in FY12.
Key Results Highlights
YoY, FY12 net profit rose 49%.
Besides stronger billings and land sales, associate/JCE contributions grew 110%
to RM89m as Horizon Hills has done well. Furthermore, EBITDA margins were up by
3.4ppt to 25.1% on better project margins.
oQ, 4Q12 earnings ballooned by 136% to RM201m largely due to
the quarter’s recognition of a few development land sales (RM240m).
Outlook Management FY13E KPIs are; 1) sales target
of RM3.0b (+22% YoY) on the back of RM4.0b new launches; 2) PATAMI growth of
20% which will yield ROE of 10% (refer overleaf).
Change to Forecasts While we raised our FY13E sales to RM3.0b from
RM2.8b, there were immaterial changes to FY13E net profit of RM534m as the
impact will be felt in FY14E. Our estimates also include the lumpy gains on
disposal of Puteri Harbour (RM180m, net).
Unbilled sales of RM2.3b provide >1 year visibility.
Rating Maintain
MARKET PERFORM
Valuation Although we are bullish on Iskandar while
IWH’s listing will lend strength to UEMLAND’s valuations, not to mention it is
a clear proxy to Iskandar, our call reflects potential near term negative
headwinds arising from GE. Potential upside bias remains post GE given the
recent positives G2G announcements.
Maintain TP of RM2.40 based on 33%* discount to our FD RNAV
of RM3.57.
Risks Unable to meet sales target. An up-cycle in
Singapore’s property sector. GE and sector risks, including negative policies.
Source: Kenanga
No comments:
Post a Comment